Netherlands

Sun 4 Oct2-1Finished

Serbia

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Netherlands vs Serbia Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Netherlands vs Serbia in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Sunday 04 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Netherlands 2-1 Serbia

Netherlands vs Serbia finished 2-1. Netherlands won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Netherlands face Serbia in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Sunday 04 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Netherlands won 2. The bookmaker market makes a Netherlands win the most likely result at 81%, implying a 2.9-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Netherlands vs Serbia with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Netherlands win	81%
Draw	14%
Serbia win	6%
Over 2.5 goals	70%
Both teams to score	46%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 2.90 – 0.70 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.7%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
1	7.9%	5.5%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
2	11.5%	8.0%	2.8%	0.7%	0.1%
3	11.1%	7.8%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%
4	8.1%	5.6%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Netherlands winDrawSerbia win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Netherlands vs Serbia. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Netherlands win is the most likely result at 81%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 70%. Both teams to score: no at 54%.

📊 Key numbers

Netherlands 81%Draw 14%Serbia 6%

81%14%

81%

Netherlands Win

70%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Netherlands and Serbia. Wins shown from Netherlands’s perspective: Netherlands 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-04	Netherlands	2 – 1	Serbia	W
2026-09-27	Serbia	1 – 2	Netherlands	W

📈 Recent form

Netherlands

Netherlands come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Serbia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WNetherlands 2-1 SerbiaUEFA Nations League
DGreece 2-2 NetherlandsUEFA Nations League
WSerbia 1-2 NetherlandsUEFA Nations League
DNetherlands 1-1 GermanyUEFA Nations League
WNetherlands 2-1 UzbekistanFriendlies

Serbia

Serbia come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 13. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Netherlands.

LNetherlands 2-1 SerbiaUEFA Nations League
LGermany 2-0 SerbiaUEFA Nations League
LSerbia 1-2 NetherlandsUEFA Nations League
LSerbia 1-2 GreeceUEFA Nations League
LMexico 5-1 SerbiaFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Netherlands at 81% to win and Serbia at 6%, with the draw at 14%. The bookmaker market makes a Netherlands win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Netherlands Win	81%	@ 1.17
Draw	14%	@ 7.00
Serbia Win	6%	@ 17.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Netherlands or Draw at 1.02 (94% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Netherlands or Draw	94%	@ 1.02
Serbia or Draw	19%	@ 5.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 2.9-0.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	@ 1.10
Over 2.5	70%	@ 1.36
Over 3.5	50%	@ 1.83
Under 3.5	50%	@ 1.83
Under 2.5	30%	@ 3.10
Under 1.5	14%	@ 7.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	@ 1.73
BTTS Yes	46%	@ 2.00

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Serbia?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Netherlands win is the most likely result at 81%.

Who is the favourite for Netherlands vs Serbia?

Our model makes a Netherlands win the most likely result at 81%. It projects an expected 2.9-0.7 scoreline for Netherlands vs Serbia.

What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Serbia?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.90 for Netherlands and 0.70 for Serbia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Netherlands and Serbia play?

Kick-off is Sunday 04 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.