Bankroll Management: What Our Own Tips Would Have Done to Your Money
How much you stake decides whether a bad run is an annoying month or the end of your bankroll. We replayed every one of our published tips in order, with different staking plans and a starting bankroll of 100, to show what really happens.
What a betting bankroll is
Your bankroll is the money you set aside for betting and nothing else: not rent, not savings. You measure every stake as a share of it. If your bankroll is 500 and one unit is 1%, a unit is 5.
The point is not to win more. It is to survive the losing runs that come with every betting record, including ours, without ever having to chase losses or top up from money you need.
Our real record, month by month
Since March 2026 we have published 477 main tips, all settled and listed in our tips archive. At average odds of 1.46, the total was −18.95 units, a return of −4.0%. Month by month:
| Month | Tips | Units | Return | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 46 | −6.0 | −13.0% | |
| April 2026 | 85 | −19.0 | −22.4% | |
| May 2026 | 61 | +5.4 | +8.8% | |
| June 2026 | 57 | −2.4 | −4.2% | |
| July 2026 | 64 | −2.2 | −3.4% | |
| August 2026 | 84 | −2.5 | −3.0% | |
| September 2026 | 64 | +8.6 | +13.5% | |
| October 2026 | 16 | −0.9 | −5.4% |
Source: Daily Sport Pick main tips, 10 March to 11 October 2026, 1 unit per tip, settled at the odds published. Full record on our results page.
The longest losing run was only 5 tips in a row, and the longest winning run 19. Yet at a flat 1 unit per bet the bankroll still fell 28.2 units from its peak, and 87 of 186 betting days ended in a loss. A short losing streak is not the danger; a long slow drift is.
One month can look brilliant (+13.5% in September) and another terrible (−22.4% in April). Judge any tipster, including us, on hundreds of bets, never on a month.
Staking tested on our tips
We replayed all 477 tips in the order they were published, starting from a bankroll of 100. Percentage stakes are calculated from the bankroll at the start of each day:
| Staking plan | Final bankroll | Worst drawdown | Lowest point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat 1 unit per bet | 81.1 | −27.7% | 72.5 |
| Flat 2 units per bet | 62.1 | −55.3% | 45.0 |
| Flat 5 units per bet | 0.0 | −100.0% | 0.0 |
| Flat 10 units per bet | 0.0 | −100.0% | 0.0 |
| 1% of bankroll per bet | 81.8 | −25.0% | 75.2 |
| 2% of bankroll per bet | 65.3 | −45.0% | 55.3 |
| 5% of bankroll per bet | 28.8 | −80.9% | 19.3 |
| 10% of bankroll per bet | 4.3 | −98.0% | 2.0 |
Simulation on our published main tips, 10 March to 11 October 2026, starting bankroll 100.
The tips were the same in every row. At 1% per bet you would have lost 18% and still be betting. At 5% you would have lost 71%, and at a flat 5 units you would have been wiped out.
Percentage staking (a fixed share of your current bankroll) shrinks your stakes automatically when you lose, which is why it held up slightly better than flat stakes at the same size. But no staking plan turns a losing record into a winning one: it only decides how much damage the losing record does.
The Kelly criterion, and why it bankrupted our model
The Kelly criterion tells you what share of your bankroll to stake to grow it fastest, given your edge:
A 55% chance at odds of 2.00: (0.55 × 2.00 − 1) / (2.00 − 1) = 0.10, so stake 10% of your bankroll.
Kelly is mathematically optimal if your probabilities are right. We tested what happens when they are not, using the 863 value bets from our value betting test, where our model claimed large edges but the bets returned −9.1%. Based on the model’s probabilities, Kelly recommended an average stake of 30.7% of the bankroll per bet:
| Staking plan | Final bankroll (from 100) | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| Full Kelly | 0.01 | −100.0% |
| Half Kelly | 0.01 | −100.0% |
| Quarter Kelly | 0.01 | −100.0% |
| Tenth Kelly | 3.69 | −96.9% |
| 1% of bankroll per bet | 43.33 | −61.3% |
| 2% of bankroll per bet | 16.84 | −86.3% |
| Flat 1 unit per bet | 21.66 | −81.1% |
Simulation on our daily value table, 12 May to 12 October 2026, 863 settled bets, model probabilities as input for Kelly.
Full, half and quarter Kelly all went bust. Even a tenth of Kelly lost 96.9%. Kelly does not protect you from a wrong model; it magnifies it.
If you use Kelly at all, use a small fraction of it and probabilities you have checked against real results, not ones that only look good on paper. For most bettors a fixed 1% per bet is safer and easier.
The rules we would follow
- Stake 1 to 2% per bet. In our test, 1% survived a 28-unit drawdown with a quarter of the bankroll lost at worst. 5% did not survive.
- Think in units, not money. Decide your unit once and keep it, so a losing run never tempts you into bigger bets.
- Never chase losses. Doubling up after a loss is the fastest way to turn a bad week into an empty account.
- Keep a full record. Every bet, at the odds you took. Without it you cannot see the slow drift that hurts most.
- Set limits with your bookmaker. Deposit and loss limits are free. Only bet if you are 18 or older, and if betting stops being fun, BeGambleAware offers free, confidential help.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of my bankroll should I stake per bet?
One to two percent. When we replayed our 477 published tips, 1% per bet left 82 of a 100 bankroll, 2% left 65, 5% left 29 and 10% left 4. The tips were the same; only the stake size changed.
Is flat staking or percentage staking better?
Both work at small sizes. Percentage staking shrinks your stakes after losses, which made it slightly safer in our test: 1% of bankroll ended at 81.8, a flat 1 unit at 81.1. At larger sizes the difference grows: 10% of bankroll left 4.3, a flat 10 units went bust.
Should I use the Kelly criterion?
Only a small fraction, and only with probabilities you have verified. With our own model probabilities, full, half and quarter Kelly all went bust on 863 bets, and a tenth of Kelly lost 97%, because the model overestimated its edge.
How long can a losing run last?
Longer than most people expect. Our longest run was 5 losing tips in a row, but the worst drawdown was 28 units over weeks of small losses, and 87 of 186 betting days were losing days.
Should I stake more on bets I am more confident about?
Be careful. In our own data, our most confident picks were consistently less accurate than our model claimed. Raising stakes on confidence only helps if that confidence is proven to be right.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.