Both Teams to Score (BTTS): What 81,113 Matches Tell Us
BTTS looks like the simplest bet in football: will both sides score, yes or no? We counted how often it actually happens in every league in our database, checked how bookmakers price it, and found out our own model was far too confident.
What both teams to score means
A BTTS bet has two sides. BTTS Yes wins if both teams score at least one goal, whatever the final result: 1-1, 2-1 and 3-2 all win. BTTS No wins if at least one team fails to score: 0-0, 1-0 and 4-0 all win. Only goals in normal time count; extra time and penalties are ignored.
Because there is no draw and no handicap, BTTS feels easy to judge. Our data says otherwise: it is one of the hardest markets to predict, and one of the more expensive to bet.
How often both teams score, by league
Across all 81,113 matches with a final score in our database, both teams scored in 52.1%. That average hides big differences between competitions:
| League | Matches | BTTS | Goals/match | 0-0 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS (USA) | 1,346 | 61.3% | 3.05 | 6.3% | |
| Bundesliga | 968 | 60.2% | 3.22 | 5.3% | |
| Eredivisie | 1,020 | 59.3% | 3.19 | 3.9% | |
| Premier League | 1,199 | 58.1% | 2.98 | 4.9% | |
| Ligue 1 | 977 | 54.4% | 2.84 | 7.2% | |
| La Liga | 1,217 | 53.7% | 2.68 | 6.0% | |
| Jupiler Pro League | 781 | 53.4% | 2.82 | 7.2% | |
| Champions League | 850 | 53.3% | 3.09 | 5.3% | |
| Championship | 1,308 | 53.0% | 2.59 | 7.3% | |
| Brazil Série A | 973 | 52.9% | 2.51 | 7.2% | |
| Europa League | 780 | 51.3% | 2.83 | 5.6% | |
| Serie A | 1,198 | 50.2% | 2.55 | 7.9% | |
| Primeira Liga | 994 | 50.1% | 2.71 | 6.3% | |
| Conference League | 1,405 | 49.3% | 2.81 | 6.6% | |
| Argentina Primera Nacional | 482 | 38.8% | 1.95 | 15.8% | |
| Argentina Torneo Federal A | 430 | 33.3% | 1.86 | 18.4% |
Source: Daily Sport Pick match database, competitions with at least 250 settled matches, grouped by competition ID so leagues with the same name in different countries are not mixed. Measured 12 October 2026.
The league matters more than almost anything else. Picking BTTS Yes in an average Bundesliga match starts you ten points ahead of the same bet in Serie A.
Lower divisions with few goals, like the Argentine second and third tiers, sit far below the average: both teams scored in barely a third of matches, and almost one in five ended 0-0.
BTTS is not the same as over 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 needs three goals from anyone. BTTS needs one from each side. A 3-0 wins over 2.5 and loses BTTS; a 1-1 does the opposite. The two markets are related, but less closely than most bettors assume.
We grouped matches by the total number of goals our model expected before kick-off, and checked how often both teams then scored:
| Expected goals (model) | Matches | BTTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.0 | 5,678 | 47.5% | |
| 2.0 to 2.5 | 16,345 | 50.7% | |
| 2.5 to 3.0 | 12,669 | 53.2% | |
| 3.0 to 3.5 | 12,187 | 54.9% | |
| 3.5 or more | 10,520 | 57.0% |
Even in the matches expected to be lowest-scoring, both teams still scored almost half the time. In the highest group it was only 57%. A high-scoring forecast nudges BTTS up, but it does not make it likely.
For more on the goals market itself, see our over/under goals guide.
Our own model was far too confident
Our Poisson model gives every match a BTTS probability. When we compared 60,654 of those forecasts with what actually happened, the pattern was clear:
| Model said | Matches | Avg. forecast | Actually happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 to 25% | 1,891 | 22.5% | 46.1% |
| 30 to 35% | 3,046 | 32.5% | 48.1% |
| 40 to 45% | 4,945 | 42.6% | 51.0% |
| 50 to 55% | 6,837 | 52.6% | 52.4% |
| 60 to 65% | 6,090 | 62.5% | 55.0% |
| 70 to 75% | 2,342 | 72.3% | 57.7% |
| 75 to 80% | 1,248 | 77.2% | 62.2% |
When the model was most sure that one team would fail to score, both teams still scored 46% of the time. When it was most sure both would score, it happened 62% of the time. The model spread its forecasts from 22% to 77%; reality only moved between about 45% and 62%.
BTTS is much harder to call than it looks. A forecast that says 25% or 75% is almost certainly overconfident.
That is the main reason we rarely publish BTTS tips. Since April 2026 we have published only 17, of which 7 won, for a loss of 4.2 units. Far too few to judge, but it matches what the numbers above predict.
How well the market prices BTTS
Bookmaker odds can be turned into a probability. For a two-way market you divide 1 by each price and scale both to 100%, which removes the margin. We did that for 4,148 settled matches with Bet365 BTTS odds:
| Market said (Yes) | Matches | Market | Actually | Return Yes | Return No |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 to 50% | 537 | 47.3% | 50.1% | −1.1% | −11.7% |
| 50 to 55% | 1,326 | 52.2% | 54.4% | −3.2% | −11.3% |
| 55 to 60% | 1,021 | 57.3% | 59.6% | −3.4% | −12.1% |
| 60 to 65% | 618 | 62.5% | 64.7% | −3.5% | −12.3% |
| 65 to 70% | 154 | 67.1% | 71.4% | −1.0% | −19.3% |
Source: Bet365 pre-match odds, April to October 2026, latest stored price before kick-off, 1 unit per bet.
Unlike our model, the market was close. Yes even landed two to four points more often than the odds implied. But that was not enough to make money once the margin was paid: backing Yes in every match returned −3.3%, backing No returned −11.5%.
The market is a far better BTTS forecaster than a simple goals model, and in our data the No side carried most of the bookmaker margin.
BTTS is an expensive market
The margin is what the bookmaker keeps. Add up 1 divided by each price; anything above 100% is margin. Measured on the same bookmakers and the same period:
| Bookmaker | BTTS | Over/under 2.5 | 1X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% |
| 10Bet | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| Unibet | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
At all three bookmakers BTTS cost more than over/under 2.5 goals. Pinnacle, which had the lowest Asian handicap margin in our data, did not appear with BTTS prices in our data at all. If you bet BTTS, comparing prices between bookmakers matters more than in most markets. Read how margins work in our odds guide.
Can you beat the market on BTTS?
The obvious idea: bet BTTS Yes when your model rates it higher than the market. We tested exactly that with our own model:
| When our model rated Yes | Bets | Yes landed | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model at least level with market | 1,823 | 55.4% | −2.7% |
| Model 5+ points above | 1,025 | 53.0% | −4.6% |
| Model 10+ points above | 480 | 52.1% | −4.7% |
| Model 15+ points above | 192 | 49.0% | −7.0% |
The bigger the disagreement, the worse the result. When the model was 15 points more optimistic than the market, BTTS landed less often than in the average match. It is the same lesson as in our value betting test: a large gap with the market is usually a mistake in the model, not a gift from the bookmaker.
How to use BTTS sensibly
- Start with the league. Bundesliga, Eredivisie and MLS sit around 60%, Serie A and Primeira Liga around 50%. That base rate tells you more than any single statistic about the two teams.
- Turn the odds into a probability. Remove the margin and compare it with the league rate. If you cannot explain a big difference, the market probably knows something you do not.
- Be careful with confident forecasts. Real BTTS rates in our data stayed between roughly 45% and 62%. Anyone claiming 80% is overselling.
- Compare prices. BTTS margins of 7 to 9% eat most edges. A better price at another bookmaker is the cheapest improvement you can make.
- Keep it small and keep a record. Every bet, at the odds you took. See our bankroll guide, and if betting stops being fun, BeGambleAware offers free, confidential help.
Frequently asked questions
How often do both teams score in football?
In the 81,113 matches in our database, both teams scored in 52.1% of games. It varies a lot by league: around 60% in the Bundesliga, Eredivisie and MLS, about 50% in Serie A and the Primeira Liga, and as low as 33% in lower Argentine divisions.
Which league has the most BTTS?
Among the big leagues in our data, MLS (61.3%), the Bundesliga (60.2%), the Eredivisie (59.3%) and the Premier League (58.1%) had the highest rates. Serie A (50.2%) and the Primeira Liga (50.1%) were the lowest of the major European leagues.
Is BTTS Yes or BTTS No the better bet?
Neither made money in our test. Backing Yes in every match at Bet365 odds returned −3.3% over 4,148 matches, backing No returned −11.5%. Most of the bookmaker margin sat on the No side.
What is the difference between BTTS and over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 needs three goals from anyone; BTTS needs at least one goal from each team. A 3-0 wins over 2.5 but loses BTTS, a 1-1 wins BTTS but loses over 2.5. Higher-scoring leagues tend to have higher BTTS rates, but the link is weaker than most people expect.
How much margin do bookmakers take on BTTS?
In our odds data, Bet365 averaged a 7.4% margin on BTTS against 5.9% on over/under 2.5 goals. 10Bet and Unibet were higher still, at 8.4% and 8.8%. That makes BTTS one of the more expensive goal markets.
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