World Cup 2026 Forecast: Our Complete Tournament Prediction

Before a ball has been kicked, our model has walked through every match of the FIFA World Cup 2026 — all 104 of them. Below you find our complete tournament prediction: from the 72 group-stage matches, through the new Round of 32, to the final at MetLife Stadium on July 19, 2026.

This is one deterministic walk through the bracket. Real World Cups are messy — single upsets cascade through entire brackets. We will leave this prediction frozen during the tournament so you can compare match by match what we got right and where we got fooled. See our main World Cup page for groups, fixtures, odds and live predictions.

OUR WORLD CUP 2026 PREDICTION

🏆

France

Final: France 1 – 0 England

3rd place: Spain (Spain 1–0 Argentina)

Knockout Bracket

Predicted path from Round of 32 to the Final. Click a stage to expand.

Round of 32 (16 matches) 28 Jun – 3 Jul 2026

South Korea 1

Canada 0

South Korea (68) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Canada (62).

28 Jun 2026, 21:00 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Germany 1

Scotland 0

Germany (93) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Scotland (58).

29 Jun 2026, 22:30 · Gillette Stadium, Boston

Netherlands 1

Morocco 0

Netherlands (96) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Morocco (92).

30 Jun 2026, 03:00 · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey

Brazil 1

Japan 0

Brazil (103) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Japan (77).

29 Jun 2026, 19:00 · NRG Stadium, Houston

France 1

Australia 0

France (113) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Australia (66).

30 Jun 2026, 23:00 · MetLife Stadium, New York

Ecuador 0

Senegal 1

Senegal (82) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Ecuador (70).

30 Jun 2026, 19:00 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas

Mexico 1

Ivory Coast 0

Mexico (80) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Ivory Coast (50).

1 Jul 2026, 03:00 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

England 1

Norway 0

England (108) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Norway (62).

1 Jul 2026, 18:00 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

USA 1

Algeria 0

USA (78) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Algeria (64).

2 Jul 2026, 02:00 · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco

Belgium 1

Czech Republic 0

Belgium (91) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Czech Republic (56).

1 Jul 2026, 22:00 · Lumen Field, Seattle

Colombia 1

Croatia 1

1–1 a.e.t. · Croatia win 4–3 on penalties

Colombia (85) and Croatia (87) could not be separated in the round of 32, locked at 1-1 after extra time. Croatia held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.

3 Jul 2026, 01:00 · BMO Field, Toronto

Spain 1

Austria 0

Spain (113) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Austria (68).

2 Jul 2026, 21:00 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Switzerland 1

Egypt 0

Switzerland (75) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Egypt (64).

3 Jul 2026, 05:00 · BC Place, Vancouver

Argentina 1

Uruguay 0

Argentina (106) edged a tight round of 32 1-0 against Uruguay (79).

4 Jul 2026, 00:00 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

Portugal 2

Panama 0

Portugal (103) were comfortably the better side, seeing off Panama (42) 2-0 in the round of 32.

4 Jul 2026, 03:30 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Türkiye 1

Iran 1

1–1 a.e.t. · Iran win 4–3 on penalties

Türkiye (70) and Iran (72) could not be separated in the round of 32, locked at 1-1 after extra time. Iran held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.

3 Jul 2026, 20:00 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas

Round of 16 (8 matches) 4–7 Jul 2026

Germany 0

France 1

France (113) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against Germany (93).

4 Jul 2026, 23:00 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

South Korea 0

Netherlands 1

Netherlands (96) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against South Korea (68).

4 Jul 2026, 19:00 · NRG Stadium, Houston

Brazil 1

Senegal 0

Brazil (103) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against Senegal (82).

5 Jul 2026, 22:00 · MetLife Stadium, New York

Mexico 0

England 1

England (108) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against Mexico (80).

6 Jul 2026, 02:00 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Croatia 0

Spain 1

Spain (113) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against Croatia (87).

6 Jul 2026, 21:00 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas

USA 0

Belgium 1

Belgium (91) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against USA (78).

7 Jul 2026, 02:00 · Lumen Field, Seattle

Argentina 1

Iran 0

Argentina (106) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against Iran (72).

7 Jul 2026, 18:00 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Switzerland 0

Portugal 1

Portugal (103) edged a tight round of 16 1-0 against Switzerland (75).

7 Jul 2026, 22:00 · BC Place, Vancouver

Quarter-finals (4 matches) 9–11 Jul 2026

France 1

Netherlands 0

France (113) edged a tight quarter-final 1-0 against Netherlands (96).

9 Jul 2026, 22:00 · Gillette Stadium, Boston

Spain 1

Belgium 0

Spain (113) edged a tight quarter-final 1-0 against Belgium (91).

10 Jul 2026, 21:00 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Brazil 0

England 1

England (108) edged a tight quarter-final 1-0 against Brazil (103).

11 Jul 2026, 23:00 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

Argentina 1

Portugal 1

1–1 a.e.t. · Argentina win 4–3 on penalties

Argentina (106) and Portugal (103) could not be separated in the quarter-final, locked at 1-1 after extra time. Argentina held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.

12 Jul 2026, 03:00 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Semi-finals 14–15 Jul 2026

France 1

Spain 1

1–1 a.e.t. · France win 4–3 on penalties

France (113) and Spain (113) could not be separated in the semi-final, locked at 1-1 after extra time. France held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.

14 Jul 2026, 21:00 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas

England 1

Argentina 1

1–1 a.e.t. · England win 4–3 on penalties

England (108) and Argentina (106) could not be separated in the semi-final, locked at 1-1 after extra time. England held their nerve from the penalty spot to advance.

15 Jul 2026, 21:00 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

3rd-place playoff 18 Jul 2026 · Miami

Spain 1

Argentina 0

Spain (113) edged a tight third-place playoff 1-0 against Argentina (106).

18 Jul 2026, 23:00 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

FINAL 19 Jul 2026 · MetLife Stadium

France 1

England 0

In the showpiece, France (113) proved too strong for England (108), winning 1-0 to lift the trophy.

19 Jul 2026, 21:00 · MetLife Stadium, New York

Predicted Group Standings

Our model simulates all 72 group-stage matches. Top 2 from each group qualify directly. 8 best 3rd-placed teams also advance.

Group A

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3-0-0	+3	9
2	South Korea	1-1-1	0	4
3	Czech Republic	1-1-1	0	4
4	South Africa	0-0-3	-3	0

Group B

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	2-1-0	+2	7
2	Canada	2-1-0	+2	7
3	Qatar	0-1-2	-2	1
4	Bosnia & Herzegovina	0-1-2	-2	1

Group C

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	2-1-0	+3	7
2	Morocco	2-1-0	+3	7
3	Scotland	1-0-2	-1	3
4	Haiti	0-0-3	-5	0

Group D

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	USA	3-0-0	+3	9
2	Türkiye	1-1-1	0	4
3	Australia	1-1-1	0	4
4	Paraguay	0-0-3	-3	0

Group E

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3-0-0	+4	9
2	Ecuador	2-0-1	+1	6
3	Ivory Coast	1-0-2	-1	3
4	Curaçao	0-0-3	-4	0

Group F

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3-0-0	+3	9
2	Japan	2-0-1	+1	6
3	Tunisia	0-1-2	-2	1
4	Sweden	0-1-2	-2	1

Group G

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3-0-0	+4	9
2	Iran	1-1-1	0	4
3	Egypt	1-1-1	0	4
4	New Zealand	0-0-3	-4	0

Group H

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3-0-0	+5	9
2	Uruguay	2-0-1	+1	6
3	Saudi Arabia	0-1-2	-3	1
4	Cape Verde Islands	0-1-2	-3	1

Group I

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	France	3-0-0	+5	9
2	Senegal	2-0-1	+1	6
3	Norway	1-0-2	-2	3
4	Iraq	0-0-3	-4	0

Group J

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3-0-0	+4	9
2	Austria	1-1-1	0	4
3	Algeria	1-1-1	0	4
4	Jordan	0-0-3	-4	0

Group K

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	3-0-0	+5	9
2	Colombia	2-0-1	+1	6
3	Uzbekistan	0-1-2	-3	1
4	Congo DR	0-1-2	-3	1

Group L

#	Team	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	England	3-0-0	+5	9
2	Croatia	2-0-1	+2	6
3	Panama	1-0-2	-2	3
4	Ghana	0-0-3	-5	0

Group Stage Match Predictions

Our predicted outcome for each of the 72 group-stage matches. Drawn matches shown with equal scores.

Group A

Mexico	1 – 0	South Africa
Mexico	1 – 0	South Korea
South Africa	0 – 1	South Korea
South Korea	1 – 1	Czech Republic
Czech Republic	1 – 0	South Africa
Czech Republic	0 – 1	Mexico

Group B

Qatar	0 – 1	Switzerland
Canada	1 – 0	Qatar
Switzerland	1 – 1	Canada
Canada	1 – 0	Bosnia & Herzegovina
Switzerland	1 – 0	Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina	1 – 1	Qatar

Group C

Brazil	1 – 1	Morocco
Haiti	0 – 1	Scotland
Brazil	2 – 0	Haiti
Scotland	0 – 1	Morocco
Morocco	2 – 0	Haiti
Scotland	0 – 1	Brazil

Group D

USA	1 – 0	Paraguay
USA	1 – 0	Australia
Paraguay	0 – 1	Australia
Australia	1 – 1	Türkiye
Türkiye	1 – 0	Paraguay
Türkiye	0 – 1	USA

Group E

Germany	2 – 0	Curaçao
Ivory Coast	0 – 1	Ecuador
Ecuador	1 – 0	Curaçao
Germany	1 – 0	Ivory Coast
Curaçao	0 – 1	Ivory Coast
Ecuador	0 – 1	Germany

Group F

Netherlands	1 – 0	Japan
Tunisia	0 – 1	Japan
Tunisia	0 – 1	Netherlands
Sweden	1 – 1	Tunisia
Netherlands	1 – 0	Sweden
Japan	1 – 0	Sweden

Group G

Belgium	1 – 0	Egypt
Iran	1 – 0	New Zealand
Belgium	1 – 0	Iran
New Zealand	0 – 1	Egypt
Egypt	1 – 1	Iran
New Zealand	0 – 2	Belgium

Group H

Saudi Arabia	0 – 1	Uruguay
Spain	2 – 0	Cape Verde Islands
Spain	2 – 0	Saudi Arabia
Uruguay	1 – 0	Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands	1 – 1	Saudi Arabia
Uruguay	0 – 1	Spain

Group I

France	1 – 0	Senegal
Norway	0 – 1	Senegal
Norway	0 – 2	France
Iraq	0 – 1	Norway
France	2 – 0	Iraq
Senegal	1 – 0	Iraq

Group J

Argentina	1 – 0	Algeria
Austria	1 – 0	Jordan
Argentina	1 – 0	Austria
Jordan	0 – 1	Algeria
Algeria	1 – 1	Austria
Jordan	0 – 2	Argentina

Group K

Uzbekistan	0 – 1	Colombia
Portugal	2 – 0	Uzbekistan
Colombia	0 – 1	Portugal
Portugal	2 – 0	Congo DR
Colombia	1 – 0	Congo DR
Congo DR	1 – 1	Uzbekistan

Group L

England	1 – 0	Croatia
Ghana	0 – 1	Panama
England	2 – 0	Ghana
Panama	0 – 1	Croatia
Croatia	2 – 0	Ghana
Panama	0 – 2	England

Tournament Awards

Statistical leaders across all 104 matches of the tournament. Goal and card totals are model projections — expected values across each team's predicted matches (cards weighted by historical discipline rates) — so the goal counts run higher than the single most-likely scorelines shown in the bracket above.

⚽ Most Goals Scored

#	Team	M	Goals
1	France	8	14
2	Spain	8	14
3	England	8	14
4	Argentina	8	13
5	Portugal	6	11

🥅 Most Goals Conceded

#	Team	M	Goals
1	Argentina	8	8
2	France	8	7
3	England	8	7
4	Panama	4	7
5	Belgium	6	6

🟨 Most Disciplined (cards)

#	Team	M	Y	R
1	Argentina	8	20.0	0.32
2	Brazil	6	13.8	0.18
3	France	8	13.6	0.16
4	England	8	13.6	0.16
5	Spain	8	12.8	0.16

✨ Cleanest (4+ matches)

#	Team	M	Y	R
1	Japan	4	4.8	0.04
2	Canada	4	6.4	0.08
3	South Korea	5	6.5	0.05
4	Australia	4	6.8	0.08
5	Norway	4	6.8	0.08

How this forecast works: Our model combines team-strength scores derived from bookmaker tournament-winner odds (for top-16 favourites) with FIFA April 2026 rankings (for all 48 teams), applied through an Elo-style logit formula with a small home-advantage bonus for host nations USA, Mexico, and Canada. Knockout matches use the same model without home-bonus (neutral venues) and force a winner (no draws — penalties decide).

This is one deterministic walk through the tournament. Real World Cup results are noisy: small upsets cascade through brackets. Locked predictions remain visible after kickoff so we can compare against what actually happens.

Title Probabilities: 40,000 Simulations

Beyond the single most-likely bracket above, we simulated the entire tournament 40,000 times to estimate how often each team reaches each stage. France and Spain lead the race for the trophy — but the knockout draw keeps it open.

Our model played out the entire tournament 40,000 times — full group stage plus the complete knockout bracket — to estimate how often each team reaches each stage. The Market column shows the bookmaker's implied title probability for comparison (it includes the bookmaker margin, so it sums to more than 100%).

#	Team	Grp	Title	Market	Final	Semi	Quarter	R16
1	France	I	18.2%	16.7%	28.8%	44.4%	62.1%	82.8%
2	Spain	H	16.8%	17.4%	26.9%	42.6%	55.5%	77.7%
3	England	L	12.7%	13.3%	22.6%	37.1%	57.0%	78.1%
4	Argentina	J	10.0%	10.0%	18.6%	32.8%	49.4%	66.4%
5	Portugal	K	9.1%	9.1%	17.9%	32.3%	52.2%	73.9%
6	Brazil	C	8.6%	11.1%	16.1%	28.6%	49.4%	69.7%
7	Netherlands	F	4.1%	4.8%	9.1%	18.2%	35.9%	50.4%
8	Belgium	G	3.5%	2.8%	8.5%	18.8%	43.1%	70.2%
9	Germany	E	3.4%	6.7%	7.9%	16.8%	31.1%	66.5%
10	Morocco	C	3.3%	2.0%	8.1%	17.7%	36.5%	57.7%
11	Croatia	L	2.1%	1.2%	6.0%	14.1%	27.8%	55.1%
12	Colombia	K	1.8%	2.4%	4.9%	12.8%	26.3%	51.5%
13	Senegal	I	1.0%	—	3.3%	9.0%	22.0%	48.1%
14	Mexico	A	1.0%	—	3.1%	8.7%	24.1%	60.9%
15	USA	D	0.8%	—	2.8%	8.2%	23.6%	51.9%
16	Uruguay	H	0.8%	2.0%	2.6%	7.9%	18.3%	38.4%
17	Switzerland	B	0.6%	1.5%	2.1%	6.6%	20.1%	53.5%
18	Japan	F	0.5%	1.5%	1.6%	5.0%	14.3%	28.0%
19	Iran	G	0.4%	—	1.5%	5.4%	17.8%	45.7%
20	Türkiye	D	0.3%	—	1.1%	4.0%	13.7%	37.5%
21	Ecuador	E	0.2%	—	1.1%	3.6%	11.4%	38.1%
22	South Korea	A	0.2%	—	0.9%	3.5%	13.6%	42.7%
23	Austria	J	0.2%	—	0.8%	3.2%	9.7%	25.1%
24	Egypt	G	0.1%	—	0.6%	2.9%	11.3%	35.2%