🤖 Model performance

AI Model Statistics

Our machine learning model analyses every football match it can find, not just the 3 tips we publish daily. Below you find the full performance data of the AI across thousands of matches. This is how the model learns and improves over time.
2,743Matches Analysed
2,596Settled
42.3%Model Accuracy
1,099Correct Predictions

This is the model's raw hit-rate on the exact 1X2 result across every match it analyses, not the win-rate of our published tips. Our tips combine multiple markets (double chance, over/under, Asian handicap) and win far more often. These figures are cumulative since March 2026 and include earlier model versions; our current model (v4) performs more strongly, see the Ensemble section below. See our tip results. What do these numbers mean?

Outcome Distribution

44%
26%
30%
Home Win 44% (1154)Draw 26% (673)Away Win 30% (769)

Over/Under 1.5 Distribution

79%
21%
Over 1.5 79% (1673)Under 1.5 21% (444)

O/U 1.5 Model Accuracy: 77.6% (1642/2117 correct)

Over/Under 2.5 Distribution

55%
45%
Over 2.5 55% (1430)Under 2.5 45% (1166)

O/U Model Accuracy: 53.4% (1386/2596 correct)

Over/Under 3.5 Distribution

33%
67%
Over 3.5 33% (690)Under 3.5 67% (1427)

O/U 3.5 Model Accuracy: 64.7% (1370/2117 correct)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

57%
43%
BTTS Yes 57% (1213)BTTS No 43% (904)

BTTS Model Accuracy: 54.9% (1163/2117 correct)

Asian Handicap Results

49%
49%
2%
Home Covered 49% (929)Away Covered 49% (930)Push 2% (28)

AH Model Accuracy: 45% (837/1859 correct, 28 push)

1X2 Model Accuracy by Competition

This is the raw 1X2 (home/draw/away) hit-rate of the model. Our published tips also use double chance, over/under and Asian-handicap markets, so their win-rate differs; see the archive for tip results.

Strong (45%+)Moderate (38-45%)Weak (below 38%)Dashed line = 33.3% (random pick)
CompetitionMatchesCorrectAccuracy
Serie A8047
58.8%+25.5
Eredivisie6031
51.7%+18.4
Serie B7136
50.7%+17.4
Ekstraklasa8944
49.4%+16.1
UEFA Europa Conference League17787
49.2%+15.9
2. Bundesliga6632
48.5%+15.2
Primeira Liga6832
47.1%+13.8
Super League5425
46.3%+13
1. Division11452
45.6%+12.3
3. Liga6630
45.5%+12.2
Allsvenskan11651
44%+10.7
Ligue 16629
43.9%+10.6
Bundesliga6428
43.8%+10.5
Jupiler Pro League8035
43.8%+10.5
La Liga9038
42.2%+8.9
Premier League23899
41.6%+8.3
UEFA Europa League5322
41.5%+8.2
Brazilian Série A12350
40.7%+7.4
League One9639
40.6%+7.3
Superliga6024
40%+6.7

Recent AI Predictions

DateMatch1X2AIC O/U 1.5O/U 2.5O/U 3.5BTTSAH LineActualResult
07 Aug 2026Primeira LigaEstoril vs FamalicaoAway Win40%Over 1.5 ✅Over 2.5 ❌Under 3.5 ✅BTTS Yes ✅-0.3 (Home) ❌Draw (1-1)❌
07 Aug 2026Jupiler Pro LeagueClub Brugge KV vs KortrijkHome Win82%Over 1.5 ✅Over 2.5 ✅Over 3.5 ❌BTTS Yes ❌-0.8 (Home) ✅Home Win (3-0)✅
07 Aug 20262. BundesligaVfL Bochum vs Hertha BSCHome Win73%Over 1.5 ❌Over 2.5 ❌Under 3.5 ✅BTTS No ✅-0.8 (Home) ❌Away Win (0-1)❌
07 Aug 2026EredivisieCambuur vs ExcelsiorHome Win57%Over 1.5 ✅Over 2.5 ✅Over 3.5 ✅BTTS Yes ❌-0.5 (Home) ❌Away Win (0-4)❌
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueFK Partizan vs FK Tobol KostanayHome Win53%—Under 2.5 ❌——-0.5 (Home) ✅Home Win (3-0)✅
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueHibernian vs ShkendijaHome Win45%Over 1.5 ✅Over 2.5 ✅Under 3.5 ✅BTTS Yes ✅-0.5 (Home) ✅Home Win (2-1)✅
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa LeagueBenfica vs Heart Of MidlothianHome Win67%—Over 2.5 ✅——-0.5 (Home) ✅Home Win (6-1)✅
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueTre Fiori vs DritaHome Win47%—Over 2.5 ✅——-0.3 (Home) ❌Away Win (1-4)❌
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueHNK Rijeka vs IlvesHome Win63%—Over 2.5 ❌——-1.0 (Home) ⬜Home Win (1-0)✅
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueBohemians vs FC MidtjyllandHome Win42%—Over 2.5 ❌——-0.3 (Home) ❌Away Win (0-2)❌
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueValur Reykjavik vs FC NordsjaellandAway Win40%—Under 2.5 ✅——-0.3 (Home) ❌Away Win (0-2)✅
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueFC Lugano vs NSI RunavikHome Win46%—Over 2.5 ❌——-0.3 (Home) ✅Home Win (2-0)✅
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueSC Braga vs Dinamo MinskHome Win62%—Over 2.5 ❌——-0.5 (Home) ✅Home Win (1-0)✅
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueBorac Banja Luka vs ML VitebskHome Win42%—Under 2.5 ✅——-0.3 (Home) ✅Home Win (1-0)✅
06 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueTwente vs Dunajska StredaHome Win45%—Over 2.5 ✅——-0.5 (Home) ✅Home Win (6-0)✅

Ensemble Model

42.3%Ensemble Accuracy
2,563Settled Matches

Our v4 GradientBoosting model — the AI behind every tip we publish — currently scores 47.5% accuracy on 1,089 settled matches since deployment. This is in line with the inherent difficulty of 3-way football outcomes (random = 33.3%). Accuracy will stabilise as more data accumulates.

33.9%When All Models Agree
758All Models Agreed

Ensemble Score Distribution & Accuracy

Score RangeMatchesAccuracy
0-9182
32.4%
10-19886
38.9%
20-29377
37.7%
30-39333
40.2%
40-49315
43.2%
50-59226
55.8%
60-69159
52.2%
70-7964
68.8%
80-8916
75%
90-994
25%
100-1091
100%

Model Calibration

Does a higher confidence score actually mean a more accurate prediction? This chart answers that. We group every settled prediction by the internal confidence score the model assigned, then show the real win-rate for each group. A rising staircase is what you want to see, it means the model knows when it is more likely to be right.

Each bar groups model predictions by internal confidence score (0–100). The height shows how often those predictions were actually correct on settled matches. A rising pattern means the model’s confidence is meaningful: higher scores genuinely correspond to more accurate predictions. Data covers our core leagues where the model has proven signal. Hover for sample sizes. This is the model’s internal ranking score across every match it analyses — not the per-tip AI Confidence shown on the tips and homepage.

Model accuracy is calculated on settled matches only. The current model uses form, goals average and H2H data as input features. Accuracy improves as more live data is collected.

More transparency: Tip results & track record · How accurate are AI predictions?