Wales

Sun 4 Oct0-1Finished

Denmark

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Wales vs Denmark Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Wales vs Denmark in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Sunday 04 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Wales 0-1 Denmark

Wales vs Denmark finished 0-1. Denmark won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Wales face Denmark in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Sunday 04 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Denmark won 2. The bookmaker market makes a Denmark win the most likely result at 49%, implying a 1.1-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Wales vs Denmark with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Wales win	25%
Draw	26%
Denmark win	49%
Over 2.5 goals	55%
Both teams to score	58%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.15 – 1.70 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	9.8%	8.4%	4.7%	2.0%
1	6.7%	11.3%	9.6%	5.4%	2.3%
2	3.8%	6.5%	5.5%	3.1%	1.3%
3	1.5%	2.5%	2.1%	1.2%	0.5%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Wales winDrawDenmark win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Wales vs Denmark. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Denmark win is the most likely result at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 55%. Both teams to score: yes at 58%.

📊 Key numbers

Wales 25%Draw 26%Denmark 49%

25%26%49%

49%

Denmark Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Wales and Denmark. Wins shown from Wales’s perspective: Denmark 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-04	Wales	0 – 1	Denmark	L
2026-09-27	Denmark	2 – 0	Wales	L

📈 Recent form

Wales

Wales come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Norway. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Denmark.

LWales 0-1 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
WWales 2-1 NorwayUEFA Nations League
LDenmark 2-0 WalesUEFA Nations League
LPortugal 1-0 WalesUEFA Nations League
LRomania 2-1 WalesFriendlies

Denmark

Denmark come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Wales. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at home to Portugal.

WWales 0-1 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
LDenmark 2-4 PortugalUEFA Nations League
WDenmark 2-0 WalesUEFA Nations League
LNorway 3-2 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
WDenmark 2-1 UkraineFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Wales at 25% to win and Denmark at 49%, with the draw at 26%. The bookmaker market makes a Denmark win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Denmark Win	49%	@ 1.95
Draw	26%	@ 3.60
Wales Win	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Denmark or Draw at 1.25 (75% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Denmark or Draw	75%	@ 1.25
Wales or Draw	51%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.1-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	65%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	55%	@ 1.70
Under 2.5	45%	@ 2.10
Over 3.5	35%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	42%	@ 2.20

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Wales vs Denmark?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Denmark win is the most likely result at 49%.

Who is the favourite for Wales vs Denmark?

Our model makes a Denmark win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.7 scoreline for Wales vs Denmark.

What is the predicted score for Wales vs Denmark?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Wales and 1.70 for Denmark. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Wales and Denmark play?

Kick-off is Sunday 04 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.