Azerbaijan

Sun 4 Oct1-0Finished

Lithuania

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Sunday 04 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania finished 1-0. Azerbaijan won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Azerbaijan face Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Sunday 04 October 2026, 13:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Azerbaijan won 1, 1 drawn. The bookmaker market makes an Azerbaijan win the most likely result at 40%, implying a 1.1-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Azerbaijan win	40%
Draw	31%
Lithuania win	29%
Over 2.5 goals	36%
Both teams to score	42%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.15 – 0.95 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.2%	11.6%	5.5%	1.7%	0.4%
1	14.1%	13.4%	6.4%	2.0%	0.5%
2	8.1%	7.7%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%
3	3.1%	2.9%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.9%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Azerbaijan winDrawLithuania win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Azerbaijan vs Lithuania. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Azerbaijan win is the most likely result at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams to score: no at 58%.

📊 Key numbers

Azerbaijan 40%Draw 31%Lithuania 29%

40%31%29%

40%

Azerbaijan Win

64%

Under 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Azerbaijan and Lithuania. Wins shown from Azerbaijan’s perspective: Azerbaijan 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-04	Azerbaijan	1 – 0	Lithuania	W
2026-09-27	Lithuania	1 – 1	Azerbaijan	D

📈 Recent form

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Lithuania.

WAzerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaUEFA Nations League
DAzerbaijan 0-0 LiechtensteinUEFA Nations League
DLithuania 1-1 AzerbaijanUEFA Nations League
WAzerbaijan 1-0 TajikistanFriendlies
WAzerbaijan 2-1 San MarinoFriendlies

Lithuania

Lithuania come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Andorra. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Azerbaijan.

LAzerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaUEFA Nations League
WLithuania 3-0 AndorraFriendlies
DLithuania 1-1 AzerbaijanUEFA Nations League
WLiechtenstein 0-2 LithuaniaUEFA Nations League
LLithuania 0-2 GeorgiaFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Azerbaijan at 40% to win and Lithuania at 29%, with the draw at 31%. The bookmaker market makes an Azerbaijan win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Azerbaijan Win	40%	@ 2.30
Draw	31%	@ 3.00
Lithuania Win	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Azerbaijan or Draw at 1.33 (71% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Azerbaijan or Draw	71%	@ 1.33
Lithuania or Draw	60%	@ 1.57

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.1-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	81%	@ 1.14
Under 2.5	65%	@ 1.44
Over 1.5	62%	@ 1.50
Under 1.5	38%	@ 2.50
Over 2.5	35%	@ 2.62
Over 3.5	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS Yes	42%	@ 2.20

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Azerbaijan win is the most likely result at 40%.

Who is the favourite for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

Our model makes an Azerbaijan win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.1-0.9 scoreline for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania.

What is the predicted score for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Azerbaijan and 0.95 for Lithuania. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Azerbaijan and Lithuania play?

Kick-off is Sunday 04 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.