Almeria

Sat 3 Oct2-1Finished

Burgos

⚽ Segunda División

Almeria vs Burgos Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Almeria vs Burgos in the Segunda División. Kick-off Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:15 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Almeria 2-1 Burgos

Almeria vs Burgos finished 2-1. Almeria won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Almeria face Burgos in the Segunda División, kicking off Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:15 UTC. Recent form: Almeria have 4 wins from their last 5, while Burgos have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Almeria won 1, 1 drawn. The bookmaker market makes an Almeria win the most likely result at 61%, implying a 1.8-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Almeria vs Burgos with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Almeria win	61%
Draw	22%
Burgos win	17%
Over 2.5 goals	49%
Both teams to score	48%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.80 – 0.80 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	5.9%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%
1	13.4%	10.7%	4.3%	1.1%	0.2%
2	12.0%	9.6%	3.9%	1.0%	0.2%
3	7.2%	5.8%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%
4	3.2%	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Almeria winDrawBurgos win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Almeria vs Burgos. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Almeria win is the most likely result at 61%. Goals lean under 2.5 at 51%. Both teams to score: no at 52%.

📊 Key numbers

Almeria 61%Draw 22%Burgos 17%

61%22%17%

61%

Almeria Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Almeria and Burgos. Wins shown from Almeria’s perspective: Almeria 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-03	Almeria	2 – 1	Burgos	W
2026-05-09	Burgos	0 – 0	Almeria	D

📈 Recent form

Almeria

Almeria come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Cordoba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sabadell.

WAlmeria 2-1 BurgosSegunda División
WMallorca 0-1 AlmeriaSegunda División
WCordoba 0-2 AlmeriaSegunda División
WAlmeria 3-2 CadizSegunda División
LSabadell 1-0 AlmeriaSegunda División

Burgos

Burgos come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to AD Ceuta FC. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Almeria.

LAlmeria 2-1 BurgosSegunda División
WBurgos 1-0 EldenseSegunda División
WLas Palmas 1-2 BurgosSegunda División
WBurgos 3-1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
DOviedo 0-0 BurgosSegunda División

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Almeria at 61% to win and Burgos at 17%, with the draw at 22%. The bookmaker market makes an Almeria win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Almeria Win	61%	@ 1.53
Draw	22%	@ 4.20
Burgos Win	17%	@ 5.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Almeria or Draw at 1.12 (83% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Almeria or Draw	83%	@ 1.12
Burgos or Draw	39%	@ 2.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.8-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	71%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	49%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	29%	@ 3.25
Under 1.5	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	51%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	49%	@ 1.91

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Almeria or Burgos is a clear favourite.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Almeria +0.5	83%	1.15
Almeria +0.25	80%	1.19
Burgos +1.75	72%	1.32
Almeria -0.25	67%	1.41
Burgos +1.5	65%	1.46
Burgos +1.25	60%	1.57
Almeria -0.5	60%	1.59
Almeria -0.75	54%	1.77
Burgos +1	53%	1.80
Almeria -1	47%	2.05
Burgos +0.75	46%	2.08
Burgos +0.5	40%	2.38
Almeria -1.25	40%	2.41
Almeria -1.5	35%	2.73
Burgos +0.25	33%	2.91
Almeria -1.75	28%	3.38
Burgos -0.25	20%	4.75
Burgos -0.5	17%	5.50

📈 How the market moved

Almeria 61%Draw 23%Burgos 17%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Almeria vs Burgos?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Almeria win is the most likely result at 61%.

Who is the favourite for Almeria vs Burgos?

Our model makes an Almeria win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 1.8-0.8 scoreline for Almeria vs Burgos.

What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Burgos?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.80 for Almeria and 0.80 for Burgos. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Almeria and Burgos play?

Kick-off is Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.