Mon 17 Aug0-7Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs Benfica Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Casa Pia vs Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 17 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica

Casa Pia vs Benfica finished 0-7. Benfica won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Casa Pia face Benfica in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Monday 17 August 2026, 19:15 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, Benfica won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 66%, projecting a 0.8-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Casa Pia vs Benfica with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Casa Pia +2 @ 1.67

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.78 – 2.10 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	11.8%	12.4%	8.7%	4.5%
1	4.4%	9.2%	9.7%	6.8%	3.5%
2	1.7%	3.6%	3.8%	2.6%	1.4%
3	0.4%	0.9%	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-2

Casa Pia winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Benfica comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Casa Pia with a +2 start at odds 1.67, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 66%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Casa Pia 12%Draw 23%Benfica 66%

12%23%66%

66%

Benfica Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Casa Pia and Benfica. Wins shown from Casa Pia’s perspective: Casa Pia 1 · 2 drawn · Benfica 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-17	Casa Pia	0 – 7	Benfica	L
2026-04-06	Casa Pia	1 – 1	Benfica	D
2025-11-09	Benfica	2 – 2	Casa Pia	D
2025-01-25	Casa Pia	3 – 1	Benfica	W
2024-08-17	Benfica	3 – 0	Casa Pia	L

📈 Recent form

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Estoril. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to FC Porto.

WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Casa Pia at 12% to win and Benfica at 66%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	66%	77%	@ 1.22
Draw	23%	16%	@ 6.00
Casa Pia Win	12%	7%	@ 13.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.01 (87% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	87%	93%	@ 1.01
Casa Pia or Draw	33%	23%	@ 3.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.8-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	79%	@ 1.16
Under 3.5	67%	61%	@ 1.49
Over 2.5	55%	59%	@ 1.56
Under 2.5	45%	41%	@ 2.23
Over 3.5	33%	39%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	22%	21%	@ 4.30

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	53%	58%	@ 1.58
BTTS Yes	47%	42%	@ 2.18

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Casa Pia or Benfica is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica -0.25	72%	83%	1.15
Casa Pia +2	68%	57%	@ 1.67
Benfica -0.5	67%	76%	1.22
Casa Pia +1.75	62%	50%	@ 1.95
Benfica -0.75	61%	–	1.25
Casa Pia +1.5	57%	44%	@ 2.13
Benfica -1	55%	71%	1.32
Casa Pia +1.25	51%	37%	@ 2.52
Benfica -1.25	49%	63%	1.50
Casa Pia +1	45%	29%	@ 3.30
Benfica -1.5	43%	56%	1.67
Benfica -1.75	38%	50%	1.91
Casa Pia +0.5	33%	24%	@ 3.95
Benfica -2	33%	43%	2.17
Casa Pia +0.25	28%	17%	@ 5.50

📈 How the market moved

Casa Pia 7%Draw 16%Benfica 77%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

Our model's main pick is Casa Pia with a +2 start at odds 1.67, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 57%.

Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 66%. It projects an expected 0.8-2.1 scoreline for Casa Pia vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-2, based on expected goals of 0.78 for Casa Pia and 2.10 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Casa Pia and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Monday 17 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.