⚽ Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs Benfica Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Casa Pia vs Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 17 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

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Result: Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica

Casa Pia vs Benfica finished 0-7. Benfica won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Casa Pia face Benfica in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Monday 17 August 2026, 19:15 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, Benfica won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 66%, projecting a 0.8-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Casa Pia vs Benfica with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Casa Pia +2 @ 1.67

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.78 – 2.10 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	11.8%	12.4%	8.7%	4.5%
1	4.4%	9.2%	9.7%	6.8%	3.5%
2	1.7%	3.6%	3.8%	2.6%	1.4%
3	0.4%	0.9%	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-2

Casa Pia winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Benfica is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Casa Pia with a +2 start at odds 1.67, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 66%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (53%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Casa Pia with a +1.25 start at odds 2.52 (+28.5% model value).

Best value

Casa Pia +1.25 at odds 2.52, 51% model probability, +28.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Casa Pia 12%Draw 23%Benfica 66%

12%23%66%

66%

Benfica Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

+28.5%

Best value: Casa Pia +1.25

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Casa Pia and Benfica. Wins shown from Casa Pia’s perspective: Casa Pia 1 · 2 drawn · Benfica 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-17	Casa Pia	0 – 7	Benfica	L
2026-04-06	Casa Pia	1 – 1	Benfica	D
2025-11-09	Benfica	2 – 2	Casa Pia	D
2025-01-25	Casa Pia	3 – 1	Benfica	W
2024-08-17	Benfica	3 – 0	Casa Pia	L

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Casa Pia at 12% to win and Benfica at 66%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	23%	@ 5.50	+25.6%
Casa Pia Win	12%	@ 10.50	+21.9%
Benfica Win	66%	@ 1.26	-17.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Casa Pia or Draw at 3.65 (33% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Casa Pia or Draw	33%	@ 3.65	+19.7%
Benfica or Draw	87%	@ 1.05	-8.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.8-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	45%	@ 2.25	+1.4%
Under 3.5	67%	@ 1.48	-0.2%
Under 1.5	22%	@ 4.50	-2.0%
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.20	-6.1%
Over 2.5	55%	@ 1.62	-11.0%
Over 3.5	33%	@ 2.60	-15.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	47%	@ 2.10	-2.1%
BTTS No	53%	@ 1.67	-10.9%

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Casa Pia or Benfica is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Casa Pia +0.25	28%	@ 5.50	+53.5%
Casa Pia +1	45%	@ 3.30	+48.5%
Casa Pia +0.5	33%	@ 3.95	+29.5%
Casa Pia +1.25	51%	@ 2.52	+28.5%
Casa Pia +1.5	57%	@ 2.13	+22.1%
Casa Pia +1.75	62%	@ 1.95	+21.2%
Casa Pia +2	68%	@ 1.67	+12.4%
Benfica -0.25	72%	1.15	-17.1%
Benfica -0.5	67%	1.22	-18.3%
Benfica -0.75	61%	1.25	-23.3%
Benfica -1.25	49%	1.50	-26.4%
Benfica -1	55%	1.32	-27.1%
Benfica -1.75	38%	1.91	-28.1%
Benfica -1.5	43%	1.67	-28.8%
Benfica -2	33%	2.17	-29.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

Our main pick is Casa Pia with a +2 start at odds 1.67, with 68% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Casa Pia with a +1.25 start at 2.52 (+28.5% value).

Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 66%. It projects an expected 0.8-2.1 scoreline for Casa Pia vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-2, based on expected goals of 0.78 for Casa Pia and 2.10 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Casa Pia and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Monday 17 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.