Sun 16 Aug1-2Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Famalicão vs Marítimo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Famalicão vs Marítimo in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Famalicão 1-2 Marítimo

Famalicão vs Marítimo finished 1-2. Marítimo won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Famalicão face Marítimo in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Famalicão vs Marítimo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.29

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.44 – 1.01 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.6%	8.7%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%
1	12.4%	12.6%	6.3%	2.1%	0.5%
2	8.9%	9.0%	4.6%	1.5%	0.4%
3	4.3%	4.3%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.5%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Famalicão winDrawMarítimo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Famalicão vs Marítimo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.29, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Famalicão win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Famalicão 53%Draw 29%Marítimo 18%

53%29%18%

53%

Famalicão Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Famalicão

Famalicão come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Nacional. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Santa Clara.

WNacional 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 1-1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 0-0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
LSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga

Marítimo

Marítimo come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Moreirense.

DGil Vicente 1-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
DMarítimo 2-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Famalicão at 53% to win and Marítimo at 18%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão Win	53%	52%	@ 1.80
Draw	29%	26%	@ 3.55
Marítimo Win	18%	22%	@ 4.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Famalicão or Draw at 1.18 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão or Draw	79%	78%	@ 1.18
Marítimo or Draw	45%	48%	@ 1.90

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	77%	71%	@ 1.29
Over 1.5	70%	72%	@ 1.27
Under 2.5	56%	51%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	44%	49%	@ 1.87
Under 1.5	30%	28%	@ 3.30
Over 3.5	23%	29%	@ 3.15

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	51%	49%	@ 1.88
BTTS Yes	49%	51%	@ 1.79

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Famalicão or Marítimo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão +0.75	82%	85%	1.12
Famalicão +0.5	79%	–	1.20
Marítimo +2	78%	83%	1.15
Marítimo +1.75	73%	75%	1.26
Famalicão +0.25	73%	78%	1.23
Marítimo +1.5	69%	69%	1.36
Famalicão 0	67%	–	1.30
Marítimo +1.25	63%	65%	1.46
Famalicão -0.25	61%	63%	1.51
Marítimo +1	57%	60%	1.58
Famalicão -0.5	55%	54%	1.74
Marítimo +0.75	51%	51%	1.88
Famalicão -0.75	49%	49%	2.00
Marítimo +0.5	45%	46%	2.04
Famalicão -1	43%	40%	@ 2.38
Marítimo +0.25	39%	37%	2.56
Famalicão -1.25	37%	35%	@ 2.75
Famalicão -1.5	31%	31%	3.06
Marítimo -0.25	27%	22%	@ 4.25
Famalicão -1.75	27%	25%	@ 3.87
Famalicão -2	22%	17%	@ 5.50
Marítimo -0.75	18%	15%	@ 6.40

📈 How the market moved

Famalicão 53%Draw 26%Marítimo 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Famalicão vs Marítimo?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.29, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Famalicão vs Marítimo?

Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline for Famalicão vs Marítimo.

What is the predicted score for Famalicão vs Marítimo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.44 for Famalicão and 1.01 for Marítimo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Famalicão and Marítimo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.