⚽ 2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga. Kick-off Friday 14 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Holstein Kiel face FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga, kicking off Friday 14 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, FC St. Pauli won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Holstein Kiel win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.6-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Holstein Kiel +0.75 @ 1.29

82%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.58 – 0.85 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	7.5%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%
1	13.9%	11.8%	5.0%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.0%	9.3%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%
3	5.8%	4.9%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.3%	1.9%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Holstein Kiel winDrawFC St. Pauli win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Holstein Kiel with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a Holstein Kiel win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Holstein Kiel win at odds 2.37 (+28.9% model value).

Best value

Holstein Kiel Win at odds 2.37, 54% model probability, +28.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Holstein Kiel 54%Draw 25%FC St. Pauli 20%

54%25%20%

54%

Holstein Kiel Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

+28.9%

Best value: Holstein Kiel Win

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli. Wins shown from Holstein Kiel’s perspective: FC St. Pauli 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-04-12	Holstein Kiel	1 – 2	FC St. Pauli	L
2024-11-29	FC St. Pauli	3 – 1	Holstein Kiel	L

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Holstein Kiel at 54% to win and FC St. Pauli at 20%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Holstein Kiel win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Holstein Kiel Win	54%	2.37	+28.9%
Draw	25%	3.46	-12.5%
FC St. Pauli Win	20%	2.80	-43.2%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Holstein Kiel or Draw at 1.42 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Holstein Kiel or Draw	79%	1.42	+11.6%
FC St. Pauli or Draw	45%	1.52	-31.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	30%	3.96	+19.5%
Under 2.5	56%	2.04	+14.6%
Under 3.5	77%	1.40	+8.1%
Over 1.5	70%	1.23	-14.1%
Over 2.5	44%	1.75	-23.3%
Over 3.5	23%	2.83	-35.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	54%	2.19	+19.2%
BTTS Yes	46%	1.59	-27.5%

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Holstein Kiel or FC St. Pauli is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Holstein Kiel -1	43%	3.71	+59.5%
Holstein Kiel -1.75	26%	5.90	+55.9%
Holstein Kiel -1.25	37%	4.17	+53.7%
Holstein Kiel -0.75	49%	2.83	+38.6%
Holstein Kiel -1.5	31%	4.30	+31.9%
Holstein Kiel -0.5	55%	2.32	+27.9%
Holstein Kiel -0.25	61%	2.06	+26.2%
Holstein Kiel 0	67%	1.75	+17.3%
Holstein Kiel +0.25	73%	1.54	+12.8%
Holstein Kiel +0.5	79%	1.42	+12.3%
Holstein Kiel +0.75	82%	1.29	+6.6%
Holstein Kiel +1.5	93%	1.12	+4.2%
Holstein Kiel +1.25	89%	1.15	+2.6%
Holstein Kiel +1	86%	1.19	+1.6%
FC St. Pauli +1.75	74%	1.13	-16.9%
FC St. Pauli +1.5	69%	1.19	-17.9%
FC St. Pauli +1.25	63%	1.23	-22.3%
FC St. Pauli +1	57%	1.27	-27.2%
FC St. Pauli +0.75	51%	1.43	-27.2%
FC St. Pauli +0.5	45%	1.59	-28.9%
FC St. Pauli +0.25	39%	1.79	-30.4%
FC St. Pauli -1	14%	4.86	-31.0%
FC St. Pauli 0	33%	2.07	-31.8%
FC St. Pauli -0.25	27%	2.45	-33.8%
FC St. Pauli -0.75	18%	3.52	-37.7%
FC St. Pauli -1.25	11%	5.50	-40.7%
FC St. Pauli -0.5	21%	2.76	-41.8%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	54%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.73 for the home side, 0.97 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?

Our main pick is Holstein Kiel with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, with 82% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Holstein Kiel win at 2.37 (+28.9% value).

Who is the favourite for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?

Our model makes a Holstein Kiel win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.8 scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli.

What is the predicted score for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.58 for Holstein Kiel and 0.85 for FC St. Pauli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli play?

Kick-off is Friday 14 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.