⚽ Championship
Southampton vs Stoke City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Southampton vs Stoke City in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Southampton 3-1 Stoke City
Southampton vs Stoke City finished 3-1. Southampton won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Southampton face Stoke City in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Southampton won 2, Stoke City won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 72%, projecting a 2.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Southampton vs Stoke City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.2% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.4% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Southampton vs Stoke City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Southampton to win by 0+ goals at odds 1.42, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Southampton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 72%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Southampton and Stoke City. Wins shown from Southampton’s perspective: Southampton 2 · Stoke City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Southampton | 3 – 1 | Stoke City | W |
| 2024-04-27 | Southampton | 0 – 1 | Stoke City | L |
| 2023-10-03 | Stoke City | 0 – 1 | Southampton | W |
📈 Recent form
Southampton come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Bristol City. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Wrexham.
- LWrexham 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
- WSouthampton 4-1 Bristol CityChampionship
- WSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
- DLincoln 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
- DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
Stoke City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Charlton. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WStoke City 2-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- WWatford 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
- DCardiff 1-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- WStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship
- WStoke City 1-0 NorwichChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. JanderLacking Match Fitness
- A. AmpahHamstring Injury
- L. CisseKnock
- A. CresswellKnee Injury
- B. LawalHealth problems
- J. TchamadeuKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Southampton at 72% to win and Stoke City at 10%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton Win | 72% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | @ 4.00 |
| Stoke City Win | 10% | 18% | @ 5.20 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Southampton or Draw at 1.15 (89% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton or Draw | 89% | 82% | @ 1.15 |
| Stoke City or Draw | 28% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 79% | @ 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 58% | @ 1.61 |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | 64% | @ 1.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 36% | @ 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 56% | @ 1.66 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Southampton or Stoke City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.75 | 91% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Southampton +0.5 | 89% | – | @ 1.17 |
| Southampton +0.25 | 85% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Southampton 0 | 81% | 77% | @ 1.25 |
| Southampton -0.25 | 76% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| Southampton -0.5 | 72% | 59% | @ 1.59 |
| Southampton -0.75 | 66% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Stoke City +2 | 62% | 78% | 1.23 |
| Southampton -1 | 60% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| Stoke City +1.75 | 57% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Southampton -1.25 | 54% | 41% | @ 2.33 |
| Stoke City +1.5 | 51% | 64% | 1.48 |
| Southampton -1.5 | 49% | 36% | @ 2.59 |
| Stoke City +1.25 | 46% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Southampton -1.75 | 43% | 30% | @ 3.17 |
| Stoke City +1 | 40% | 53% | 1.80 |
| Southampton -2 | 38% | 22% | @ 4.26 |
| Stoke City +0.75 | 34% | 46% | 2.10 |
| Stoke City +0.5 | 28% | 41% | 2.30 |
| Stoke City +0.25 | 24% | 33% | 2.88 |
| Stoke City 0 | 19% | 23% | 4.07 |
| Stoke City -0.25 | 15% | 22% | 4.41 |
| Stoke City -0.75 | 9% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Stoke City?
Our model's main pick is Southampton to win by 0+ goals at odds 1.42, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.
Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Stoke City?
Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 72%. It projects an expected 2.5-0.9 scoreline for Southampton vs Stoke City.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Stoke City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.46 for Southampton and 0.93 for Stoke City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Southampton and Stoke City play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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