vs
⚽ Premier League
Everton vs Crystal Palace Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Everton vs Crystal Palace in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Everton face Crystal Palace in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Everton won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Everton win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Everton vs Crystal Palace with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 12.7% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Everton vs Crystal Palace is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates an Everton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.89 (+1.8% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Everton and Crystal Palace. Wins shown from Everton’s perspective: Everton 3 · 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Crystal Palace | 2 – 2 | Everton | D |
| 2025-10-05 | Everton | 2 – 1 | Crystal Palace | W |
| 2025-02-15 | Crystal Palace | 1 – 2 | Everton | W |
| 2024-09-28 | Everton | 2 – 1 | Crystal Palace | W |
| 2024-02-19 | Everton | 1 – 1 | Crystal Palace | D |
📈 Recent form
Everton come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Newcastle. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at VfB Stuttgart.
- DEverton 1-1 LilleFriendlies Clubs
- WNewcastle 1-3 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
- LVfB Stuttgart 3-1 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
- WHamburger SV 1-2 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
- LStoke City 1-0 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
Crystal Palace come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Swindon Town. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at SC Freiburg.
- LSC Freiburg 3-0 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
- WFulham 1-2 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
- WCrystal Palace 3-1 Al UlaComo Cup
- LBromley 3-0 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
- WCrystal Palace 5-1 Swindon TownFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. GarnerGroin Injury
- T. IroegbunamMuscle Injury
- C. NorgaardInjury
- D. HendersonAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Everton at 40% to win and Crystal Palace at 31%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Everton win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace Win | 31% | @ 3.29 | +0.8% |
| Draw | 29% | @ 3.38 | -2.1% |
| Everton Win | 40% | @ 2.20 | -11.1% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Crystal Palace or Draw at 1.65 (58% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace or Draw | 58% | @ 1.65 | -3.9% |
| Everton or Draw | 68% | @ 1.32 | -10.3% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 28% | @ 3.63 | +2.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | @ 1.89 | +1.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 75% | @ 1.34 | +0.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | @ 1.29 | -7.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | @ 1.92 | -11.3% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | @ 3.31 | -18.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 48% | @ 2.06 | -0.2% |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | @ 1.72 | -11.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Everton or Crystal Palace is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace -1 | 23% | @ 6.00 | +35.9% |
| Crystal Palace -1.25 | 18% | @ 6.60 | +18.6% |
| Crystal Palace -0.75 | 27% | @ 4.11 | +12.3% |
| Crystal Palace -0.25 | 39% | @ 2.80 | +8.0% |
| Crystal Palace 0 | 45% | @ 2.37 | +6.8% |
| Everton -1 | 31% | @ 3.42 | +5.0% |
| Crystal Palace +0.25 | 52% | @ 1.96 | +1.3% |
| Crystal Palace -0.5 | 32% | @ 3.16 | +1.2% |
| Crystal Palace +0.5 | 58% | 1.68 | -2.1% |
| Crystal Palace +1.5 | 80% | 1.21 | -2.9% |
| Crystal Palace +0.75 | 64% | 1.51 | -3.8% |
| Crystal Palace +1.75 | 83% | 1.15 | -4.2% |
| Crystal Palace +1.25 | 75% | 1.27 | -5.1% |
| Everton -0.75 | 36% | 2.60 | -5.9% |
| Everton +1.5 | 87% | 1.08 | -5.9% |
| Everton -0.25 | 48% | 1.92 | -7.2% |
| Crystal Palace +1 | 69% | 1.32 | -8.3% |
| Everton -1.75 | 17% | 5.50 | -8.4% |
| Everton +0.5 | 68% | 1.35 | -8.4% |
| Everton +1.25 | 82% | 1.11 | -8.9% |
| Everton +0.75 | 73% | 1.24 | -9.9% |
| Everton -0.5 | 42% | 2.15 | -10.2% |
| Everton +0.25 | 61% | 1.45 | -11.2% |
| Everton 0 | 55% | 1.59 | -12.9% |
| Everton +1 | 77% | 1.12 | -13.4% |
| Everton -1.5 | 20% | 4.00 | -21.0% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 41% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 41% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 40% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.41 for the home side, 1.20 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.89 (+1.8% value).
Who is the favourite for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model makes an Everton win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Everton vs Crystal Palace.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Everton and 1.15 for Crystal Palace. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Everton and Crystal Palace play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.