⚽ Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds finished 0-1. Leeds won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Nottingham Forest face Leeds in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 1, Leeds won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Nottingham Forest win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Nottingham Forest win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Nottingham Forest and Leeds. Wins shown from Nottingham Forest’s perspective: Nottingham Forest 1 · Leeds 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Nottingham Forest | 0 – 2 | Leeds | L |
| 2026-08-22 | Nottingham Forest | 0 – 1 | Leeds | L |
| 2026-02-06 | Leeds | 3 – 1 | Nottingham Forest | L |
| 2025-11-09 | Nottingham Forest | 3 – 1 | Leeds | W |
📈 Recent form
Nottingham Forest come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Aston Villa. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Coventry.
- LNottingham Forest 0-1 CoventryPremier League
- WAston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- DNottingham Forest 0-0 TottenhamPremier League
- DLiverpool 2-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- LNottingham Forest 0-2 LeedsLeague Cup
Leeds come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Newcastle. Their only defeat in that run was 3-6 at Chelsea.
- DLeeds 0-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- WLeeds 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
- LChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup
- DBrighton 1-1 LeedsPremier League
- DLeeds 1-1 BrentfordPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. SavonaKnee Injury
- R. YatesInjury
- W. GnontoHamstring Injury
- G. GudmundssonHamstring Injury
- M. JosephKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Nottingham Forest at 42% to win and Leeds at 30%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Nottingham Forest win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest Win | 42% | 41% | @ 2.32 |
| Leeds Win | 30% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Nottingham Forest or Draw at 1.35 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest or Draw | 69% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
| Leeds or Draw | 57% | 59% | @ 1.60 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 | 71% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 48% | @ 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 52% | @ 1.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 27% | @ 3.45 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 54% | @ 1.72 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 46% | @ 2.04 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Nottingham Forest or Leeds is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest +1.5 | 87% | 85% | 1.09 |
| Leeds +1.75 | 83% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Nottingham Forest +1.25 | 83% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Leeds +1.5 | 80% | 79% | 1.18 |
| Nottingham Forest +1 | 78% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Leeds +1.25 | 74% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Nottingham Forest +0.75 | 73% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Nottingham Forest +0.5 | 69% | 69% | 1.37 |
| Leeds +1 | 68% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Leeds +0.75 | 63% | 66% | 1.46 |
| Nottingham Forest +0.25 | 62% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Leeds +0.5 | 57% | 58% | 1.62 |
| Nottingham Forest 0 | 56% | 57% | 1.66 |
| Leeds +0.25 | 51% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Nottingham Forest -0.25 | 49% | 48% | @ 2.04 |
| Leeds 0 | 44% | 43% | 2.21 |
| Nottingham Forest -0.5 | 43% | 42% | 2.26 |
| Leeds -0.25 | 38% | 36% | 2.64 |
| Nottingham Forest -0.75 | 37% | 34% | @ 2.79 |
| Nottingham Forest -1 | 32% | 26% | @ 3.71 |
| Leeds -0.5 | 31% | 31% | 3.02 |
| Leeds -0.75 | 27% | 25% | @ 3.83 |
| Nottingham Forest -1.25 | 26% | 23% | @ 4.17 |
| Leeds -1 | 22% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Nottingham Forest -1.5 | 20% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Leeds -1.25 | 17% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Nottingham Forest -1.75 | 17% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Leeds -1.5 | 13% | 15% | 6.42 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Our model makes a Nottingham Forest win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.56 for Nottingham Forest and 1.17 for Leeds. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Nottingham Forest and Leeds play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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