vs
⚽ Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Nottingham Forest face Leeds in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 1, Leeds won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Nottingham Forest win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Nottingham Forest win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.96 (+0.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Nottingham Forest and Leeds. Wins shown from Nottingham Forest’s perspective: Nottingham Forest 1 · Leeds 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Leeds | 3 – 1 | Nottingham Forest | L |
| 2025-11-09 | Nottingham Forest | 3 – 1 | Leeds | W |
📈 Recent form
Nottingham Forest come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Stade Brestois 29. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Barcelona.
- WNottingham Forest 2-0 Stade Brestois 29Friendlies Clubs
- WNottingham Forest 2-1 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs
- LBarcelona 1-0 Nottingham ForestFriendlies Clubs
- LUdinese 1-0 Nottingham ForestFriendlies Clubs
- LSporting CP 4-1 Nottingham ForestFriendlies Clubs
Leeds come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to FC Augsburg. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WLeeds 4-0 FC AugsburgFriendlies Clubs
- DLeeds 1-1 Manchester UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- WLeeds 2-0 RB LeipzigFriendlies Clubs
- WLiverpool 2-4 LeedsPremier League – Summe
- WSunderland 0-1 LeedsPremier League – Summe
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. SavonaKnee Injury
- R. YatesInjury
- W. GnontoHamstring Injury
- G. GudmundssonHamstring Injury
- M. JosephKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Nottingham Forest at 42% to win and Leeds at 30%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Nottingham Forest win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest Win | 42% | @ 2.32 | -2.8% |
| Leeds Win | 30% | @ 3.09 | -6.3% |
| Draw | 28% | @ 3.32 | -7.9% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Nottingham Forest or Draw at 1.36 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest or Draw | 69% | @ 1.36 | -6.6% |
| Leeds or Draw | 57% | @ 1.59 | -8.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 51% | @ 1.96 | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | @ 3.40 | -0.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | @ 1.30 | -1.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 71% | @ 1.32 | -6.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | @ 1.86 | -9.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | @ 3.48 | -15.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | @ 1.73 | -5.1% |
| BTTS No | 45% | @ 2.05 | -7.9% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Nottingham Forest or Leeds is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds -1 | 22% | @ 5.75 | +26.5% |
| Nottingham Forest -1 | 32% | @ 3.71 | +16.9% |
| Nottingham Forest -1.25 | 26% | @ 4.17 | +8.3% |
| Leeds -1.25 | 17% | @ 6.00 | +4.4% |
| Nottingham Forest -0.75 | 37% | @ 2.79 | +3.3% |
| Nottingham Forest -1.75 | 17% | @ 5.90 | +1.7% |
| Leeds -0.75 | 27% | @ 3.83 | +1.7% |
| Nottingham Forest -0.25 | 49% | @ 2.04 | +0.1% |
| Leeds -0.25 | 38% | 2.64 | -0.4% |
| Leeds 0 | 44% | 2.21 | -2.0% |
| Nottingham Forest -0.5 | 43% | 2.26 | -3.4% |
| Nottingham Forest +1.5 | 87% | 1.09 | -4.5% |
| Nottingham Forest +0.5 | 69% | 1.37 | -5.5% |
| Leeds -0.5 | 31% | 3.02 | -5.9% |
| Leeds +0.25 | 51% | 1.85 | -6.0% |
| Leeds +1.5 | 80% | 1.18 | -6.1% |
| Leeds +1.75 | 83% | 1.13 | -6.5% |
| Nottingham Forest +0.25 | 62% | 1.50 | -6.6% |
| Nottingham Forest +0.75 | 73% | 1.27 | -6.8% |
| Leeds +0.5 | 57% | 1.62 | -7.2% |
| Nottingham Forest 0 | 56% | 1.66 | -7.5% |
| Nottingham Forest +1.25 | 83% | 1.12 | -7.5% |
| Leeds +0.75 | 63% | 1.46 | -8.5% |
| Leeds +1.25 | 74% | 1.24 | -8.6% |
| Nottingham Forest -1.5 | 20% | 4.40 | -10.2% |
| Nottingham Forest +1 | 78% | 1.14 | -11.1% |
| Leeds +1 | 68% | 1.28 | -12.4% |
| Leeds -1.5 | 13% | 6.42 | -17.8% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 49% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 42% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 39% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.43 for the home side, 1.18 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.96 (+0.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Our model makes a Nottingham Forest win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.56 for Nottingham Forest and 1.17 for Leeds. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Nottingham Forest and Leeds play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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