vs
⚽ Primeira Liga
Estoril vs Rio Ave Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estoril vs Rio Ave in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Estoril face Rio Ave in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Estoril won 2, Rio Ave won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Estoril win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.8-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estoril vs Rio Ave with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Estoril vs Rio Ave is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates an Estoril win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.83 (+3.1% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Estoril and Rio Ave. Wins shown from Estoril’s perspective: Estoril 2 · 2 drawn · Rio Ave 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Estoril | 1 – 2 | Rio Ave | L |
| 2025-11-01 | Rio Ave | 0 – 4 | Estoril | W |
| 2025-02-22 | Estoril | 2 – 1 | Rio Ave | W |
| 2024-09-21 | Rio Ave | 2 – 2 | Estoril | D |
| 2024-01-31 | Rio Ave | 1 – 1 | Estoril | D |
📈 Recent form
Estoril come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 6. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Nacional.
- LNacional 2-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- DEstoril 1-1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- DCF Os Belenenses 1-1 EstorilFriendlies Clubs
- DEstoril 0-0 TorreenseFriendlies Clubs
- LAlverca 2-0 EstorilFriendlies Clubs
Rio Ave come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Portimonense. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to FC Porto.
- LRio Ave 0-2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- LGIL Vicente 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- WRio Ave 3-1 TondelaFriendlies Clubs
- DRio Ave 2-2 Al-Ahli JeddahFriendlies Clubs
- WPortimonense 0-3 Rio AveFriendlies Clubs
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Estoril at 44% to win and Rio Ave at 27%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Estoril win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 29% | @ 3.50 | +2.7% |
| Rio Ave Win | 27% | @ 3.79 | +2.0% |
| Estoril Win | 44% | @ 1.94 | -15.0% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rio Ave or Draw at 1.85 (54% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave or Draw | 54% | @ 1.85 | +0.8% |
| Estoril or Draw | 71% | @ 1.23 | -12.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 56% | @ 1.83 | +3.1% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | @ 3.02 | +2.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | @ 1.25 | -0.9% |
| Under 3.5 | 66% | @ 1.36 | -10.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | @ 1.96 | -14.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 56% | @ 1.69 | -4.5% |
| BTTS No | 44% | @ 2.04 | -10.9% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Estoril or Rio Ave is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave -1 | 20% | @ 7.00 | +40.3% |
| Rio Ave -0.75 | 24% | @ 5.00 | +22.0% |
| Rio Ave 0 | 42% | @ 2.82 | +17.3% |
| Rio Ave -0.25 | 35% | @ 3.29 | +15.7% |
| Rio Ave -0.5 | 29% | @ 3.78 | +8.6% |
| Rio Ave +0.25 | 48% | @ 2.17 | +4.1% |
| Estoril -2 | 16% | @ 6.60 | +3.5% |
| Rio Ave +0.5 | 54% | @ 1.88 | +2.3% |
| Rio Ave +1.5 | 78% | @ 1.29 | +0.2% |
| Rio Ave +0.75 | 60% | 1.66 | +0.0% |
| Rio Ave +1.25 | 72% | 1.35 | -2.8% |
| Rio Ave +1.75 | 81% | 1.20 | -2.9% |
| Estoril -1 | 34% | 2.82 | -4.1% |
| Rio Ave +1 | 66% | 1.44 | -5.3% |
| Rio Ave +2 | 84% | 1.11 | -6.4% |
| Estoril -0.75 | 40% | 2.32 | -7.8% |
| Estoril +0.5 | 71% | 1.27 | -9.5% |
| Estoril -1.25 | 28% | 3.19 | -9.8% |
| Estoril -0.25 | 52% | 1.71 | -11.2% |
| Estoril +0.75 | 76% | 1.17 | -11.5% |
| Estoril +1 | 80% | 1.10 | -12.0% |
| Estoril -0.5 | 46% | 1.92 | -12.8% |
| Estoril +0.25 | 65% | 1.34 | -13.1% |
| Estoril -1.75 | 19% | 4.40 | -16.0% |
| Estoril 0 | 58% | 1.42 | -16.9% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 51% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 55% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 38% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.49 for the home side, 1.13 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Estoril vs Rio Ave?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.83 (+3.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Rio Ave?
Our model makes an Estoril win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline for Estoril vs Rio Ave.
What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Rio Ave?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.80 for Estoril and 1.14 for Rio Ave. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Estoril and Rio Ave play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.