⚽ Premier League

Newcastle vs Liverpool Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Newcastle vs Liverpool in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Newcastle face Liverpool in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Liverpool won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Liverpool win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.8-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Newcastle vs Liverpool with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Newcastle or Draw @ 1.85

62%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.79 – 1.78 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.8%	5.0%	4.5%	2.6%	1.2%
1	5.0%	9.0%	8.0%	4.7%	2.1%
2	4.5%	8.0%	7.1%	4.2%	1.9%
3	2.7%	4.8%	4.3%	2.5%	1.1%
4	1.2%	2.1%	1.9%	1.1%	0.5%

Projected score: 1-1

Newcastle winDrawLiverpool win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Newcastle vs Liverpool is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Newcastle or Draw at odds 1.85, the selection our model is most confident in at 62%. On the match result, the model rates a Liverpool win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (70%).

Best value

Newcastle or Draw at odds 1.85, 62% model probability, +14.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Newcastle 35%Draw 28%Liverpool 37%

35%28%37%

37%

Liverpool Win

69%

Over 2.5 goals

70%

BTTS yes

+14.8%

Best value: Newcastle or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Newcastle and Liverpool. Wins shown from Newcastle’s perspective: 1 drawn · Liverpool 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-31	Liverpool	4 – 1	Newcastle	L
2025-08-25	Newcastle	2 – 3	Liverpool	L
2025-02-26	Liverpool	2 – 0	Newcastle	L
2024-12-04	Newcastle	3 – 3	Liverpool	D
2024-01-01	Liverpool	4 – 2	Newcastle	L

📈 Recent form

Newcastle

Newcastle come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Valencia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bayer Leverkusen.

DNewcastle 1-1 StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs
LNewcastle 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs
LNewcastle 1-3 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
WValencia 1-2 NewcastleFriendlies Clubs
LBristol City 4-1 NewcastleFriendlies Clubs

Liverpool

Liverpool come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Como. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Monaco.

WLiverpool 2-0 ComoFriendlies Clubs
LLiverpool 2-3 MonacoFriendlies Clubs
LLiverpool 2-4 LeedsPremier League – Summe
WLiverpool 1-0 WrexhamPremier League – Summe
WLiverpool 4-2 SunderlandPremier League – Summe

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Newcastle

JoelintonInjury
D. BurnInjury
V. LivramentoHamstring Injury
L. MileyInjury

Liverpool

C. BradleyKnee Injury
H. EkitikeAchilles Tendon Injury
J. GomezInjury
G. LeoniKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Newcastle at 35% to win and Liverpool at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Liverpool win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Newcastle Win	35%	@ 3.50	+21.9%
Draw	28%	@ 3.90	+9.6%
Liverpool Win	37%	@ 1.90	-29.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Newcastle or Draw at 1.85 (62% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Newcastle or Draw	62%	@ 1.85	+14.8%
Liverpool or Draw	64%	@ 1.28	-17.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	48%	@ 2.15	+2.8%
Over 2.5	69%	@ 1.48	+2.4%
Over 1.5	87%	@ 1.15	+0.2%
Under 3.5	52%	@ 1.67	-12.9%
Under 2.5	31%	@ 2.60	-19.9%
Under 1.5	13%	@ 5.25	-32.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 70%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	70%	@ 1.44	+0.1%
BTTS No	30%	@ 2.65	-19.3%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	44%
Dixon-Coles	Away	42%
GradientBoosting	Away	36%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.27 for the home side, 1.32 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Liverpool?

Our main pick is Newcastle or Draw at odds 1.85, with 62% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Liverpool?

Our model makes a Liverpool win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.8 scoreline for Newcastle vs Liverpool.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Liverpool?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.79 for Newcastle and 1.78 for Liverpool. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Newcastle and Liverpool play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.