⚽ Premier League
Newcastle vs Liverpool Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Newcastle vs Liverpool in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Result: Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool
Newcastle vs Liverpool finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Newcastle face Liverpool in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Liverpool won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Liverpool win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.8-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Newcastle vs Liverpool with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Newcastle vs Liverpool comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Newcastle with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 86% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Liverpool win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (70%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Newcastle and Liverpool. Wins shown from Newcastle’s perspective: 2 drawn · Liverpool 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Newcastle | 2 – 2 | Liverpool | D |
| 2026-01-31 | Liverpool | 4 – 1 | Newcastle | L |
| 2025-08-25 | Newcastle | 2 – 3 | Liverpool | L |
| 2025-02-26 | Liverpool | 2 – 0 | Newcastle | L |
| 2024-12-04 | Newcastle | 3 – 3 | Liverpool | D |
📈 Recent form
Newcastle come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Tottenham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-4 at Leeds.
- WNewcastle 2-1 Hull CityPremier League
- LLeeds 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
- WMillwall 0-1 NewcastleLeague Cup
- DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League
- WTottenham 0-2 NewcastlePremier League
Liverpool come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Tottenham.
- WBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
- WLiverpool 3-1 TottenhamLeague Cup
- DLiverpool 0-0 FulhamPremier League
- WLiverpool 2-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
- WIpswich 0-2 LiverpoolPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- JoelintonInjury
- V. LivramentoHamstring Injury
- C. BradleyKnee Injury
- H. EkitikeAchilles Tendon Injury
- J. GomezInjury
- G. LeoniKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Newcastle at 35% to win and Liverpool at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Liverpool win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | 37% | 51% | @ 1.86 |
| Newcastle Win | 35% | 24% | @ 3.95 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | @ 3.85 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Liverpool or Draw at 1.24 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool or Draw | 64% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| Newcastle or Draw | 62% | 49% | @ 1.92 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 84% | @ 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Under 3.5 | 52% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 36% | @ 2.63 |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | 16% | @ 5.80 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 70%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 70% | 65% | @ 1.43 |
| BTTS No | 30% | 35% | @ 2.65 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Newcastle or Liverpool is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle +2 | 88% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Newcastle +1.75 | 86% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Liverpool +1.5 | 84% | 87% | 1.05 |
| Newcastle +1.5 | 83% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Newcastle +1.25 | 78% | 66% | @ 1.45 |
| Liverpool +1 | 74% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Newcastle +1 | 72% | 62% | @ 1.55 |
| Liverpool +0.75 | 69% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Newcastle +0.75 | 67% | 55% | @ 1.75 |
| Liverpool +0.5 | 64% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Newcastle +0.5 | 62% | 48% | @ 1.97 |
| Liverpool +0.25 | 58% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Newcastle +0.25 | 56% | 42% | @ 2.31 |
| Liverpool 0 | 51% | 68% | 1.41 |
| Newcastle 0 | 49% | 32% | @ 2.98 |
| Liverpool -0.25 | 44% | 58% | 1.64 |
| Newcastle -0.25 | 42% | 28% | @ 3.43 |
| Liverpool -0.5 | 38% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Newcastle -0.5 | 36% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Liverpool -0.75 | 33% | 45% | 2.10 |
| Newcastle -0.75 | 31% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Liverpool -1 | 28% | 38% | 2.49 |
| Newcastle -1 | 26% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Liverpool -1.25 | 22% | 34% | 2.81 |
| Liverpool -1.5 | 17% | 31% | 3.09 |
| Newcastle -1.5 | 16% | 13% | @ 7.00 |
| Liverpool -1.75 | 14% | 26% | 3.55 |
| Liverpool -2 | 12% | 19% | 5.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our model's main pick is Newcastle with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 86% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our model makes a Liverpool win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.8 scoreline for Newcastle vs Liverpool.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Liverpool?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.79 for Newcastle and 1.78 for Liverpool. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Newcastle and Liverpool play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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