⚽ Primeira Liga

Santa Clara vs Famalicao Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santa Clara vs Famalicao in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Santa Clara face Famalicao in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Santa Clara won 2, Famalicao won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Famalicao win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.0-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santa Clara vs Famalicao with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Famalicao or Draw @ 1.48

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.97 – 1.04 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.4%	13.9%	7.2%	2.5%	0.7%
1	13.0%	13.5%	7.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2	6.3%	6.6%	3.4%	1.2%	0.3%
3	2.0%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Santa Clara winDrawFamalicao win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Santa Clara vs Famalicao is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Famalicao or Draw at odds 1.48, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Famalicao win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points no (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.77 (+6.7% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 1.77, 60% model probability, +6.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Santa Clara 30%Draw 32%Famalicao 38%

30%32%38%

38%

Famalicao Win

67%

Under 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS no

+6.7%

Best value: BTTS No

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Santa Clara and Famalicao. Wins shown from Santa Clara’s perspective: Santa Clara 2 · Famalicao 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-18	Santa Clara	0 – 1	Famalicao	L
2025-08-10	Famalicao	3 – 0	Santa Clara	L
2025-05-10	Santa Clara	2 – 1	Famalicao	W
2024-12-30	Famalicao	1 – 2	Santa Clara	W

📈 Recent form

Santa Clara

Santa Clara come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Arouca. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WAcademico Viseu 0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
DSanta Clara 2-2 NacionalPrimeira Liga
WSanta Clara 3-0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
DSanta Clara 1-1 Felgueiras 1932Friendlies Clubs
WSanta Clara 2-1 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs

Famalicao

Famalicao come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Tondela. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Maritimo.

LFamalicao 1-2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 1-1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
LFamalicao 2-3 ComoComo Cup
WFamalicao 1-0 TondelaFriendlies Clubs
DFamalicao 0-0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Santa Clara at 30% to win and Famalicao at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Famalicao win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Famalicao Win	38%	@ 2.90	+10.8%
Draw	32%	@ 2.94	-5.3%
Santa Clara Win	30%	@ 2.60	-23.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Famalicao or Draw at 1.48 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Famalicao or Draw	67%	@ 1.48	-0.2%
Santa Clara or Draw	59%	@ 1.40	-17.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	40%	@ 2.70	+8.9%
Under 2.5	67%	@ 1.57	+5.8%
Under 3.5	86%	@ 1.20	+2.6%
Over 1.5	60%	@ 1.45	-13.5%
Over 2.5	33%	@ 2.35	-23.4%
Over 3.5	14%	@ 4.50	-34.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	60%	@ 1.77	+6.7%
BTTS Yes	40%	@ 1.95	-22.6%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	38%
Dixon-Coles	Away	42%
GradientBoosting	Away	39%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.21 for the home side, 1.39 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (16%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?

Our main pick is Famalicao or Draw at odds 1.48, with 67% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.77 (+6.7% value).

Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?

Our model makes a Famalicao win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.0 scoreline for Santa Clara vs Famalicao.

What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.97 for Santa Clara and 1.04 for Famalicao. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Santa Clara and Famalicao play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.