⚽ Primeira Liga
Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 24 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.
Result: Gil Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia
Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia finished 2-0. Gil Vicente won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Gil Vicente face Casa Pia in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Monday 24 August 2026, 19:15 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Gil Vicente won 2, Casa Pia won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Gil Vicente win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.7-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11.8% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.9% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Casa Pia with a +1.75 start at odds 1.25, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Gil Vicente win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (50%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Gil Vicente and Casa Pia. Wins shown from Gil Vicente’s perspective: Gil Vicente 2 · 2 drawn · Casa Pia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gil Vicente | 2 – 0 | Casa Pia | W |
| 2026-04-27 | Gil Vicente | 2 – 1 | Casa Pia | W |
| 2025-12-13 | Casa Pia | 1 – 1 | Gil Vicente | D |
| 2025-02-22 | Casa Pia | 1 – 0 | Gil Vicente | L |
| 2024-09-22 | Gil Vicente | 1 – 1 | Casa Pia | D |
📈 Recent form
Gil Vicente come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Casa Pia. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Benfica.
- DGil Vicente 1-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
- LBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
- LGil Vicente 0-1 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
- DFamalicão 0-0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
- WGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Casa Pia come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Estoril. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to FC Porto.
- WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- LCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- LCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- LGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Gil Vicente at 48% to win and Casa Pia at 22%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Gil Vicente win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente Win | 48% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | @ 3.55 |
| Casa Pia Win | 22% | 17% | @ 5.60 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Gil Vicente or Draw at 1.11 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente or Draw | 75% | 83% | @ 1.11 |
| Casa Pia or Draw | 50% | 43% | @ 2.08 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 65% | @ 1.42 |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | 79% | @ 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 60% | @ 1.52 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | @ 2.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 21% | @ 4.30 |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 35% | @ 2.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 41% | @ 2.23 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 59% | @ 1.55 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Gil Vicente or Casa Pia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia +2 | 81% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Casa Pia +1.75 | 77% | – | 1.25 |
| Gil Vicente +0.5 | 75% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Casa Pia +1.5 | 74% | – | @ 1.37 |
| Gil Vicente +0.25 | 69% | 79% | 1.21 |
| Casa Pia +1.25 | 68% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Gil Vicente 0 | 63% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Casa Pia +1 | 62% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Gil Vicente -0.25 | 57% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Casa Pia +0.75 | 56% | 50% | @ 1.92 |
| Gil Vicente -0.5 | 50% | 57% | 1.66 |
| Casa Pia +0.5 | 50% | 43% | @ 2.17 |
| Gil Vicente -0.75 | 44% | 50% | 1.94 |
| Casa Pia +0.25 | 43% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Gil Vicente -1 | 38% | 41% | 2.35 |
| Casa Pia 0 | 37% | 24% | @ 3.93 |
| Gil Vicente -1.25 | 32% | 35% | 2.75 |
| Casa Pia -0.25 | 31% | 21% | @ 4.56 |
| Casa Pia -0.5 | 25% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Gil Vicente -2 | 19% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our model's main pick is Casa Pia with a +1.75 start at odds 1.25, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 80%.
Who is the favourite for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our model makes a Gil Vicente win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia.
What is the predicted score for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.68 for Gil Vicente and 0.98 for Casa Pia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Gil Vicente and Casa Pia play?
Kick-off is Monday 24 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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