Wed 26 Aug1-2Finished

⚽ UEFA Champions League

Lyon vs Fenerbahçe Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Wednesday 26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lyon 1-2 Fenerbahçe

Lyon vs Fenerbahçe finished 1-2. Fenerbahçe won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.31, landed.

Lyon face Fenerbahçe in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Wednesday 26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Fenerbahçe won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.6-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.31

81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.63 – 1.36 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.0%	6.8%	4.7%	2.1%	0.7%
1	8.2%	11.1%	7.6%	3.4%	1.2%
2	6.7%	9.1%	6.2%	2.8%	1.0%
3	3.6%	4.9%	3.4%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.5%	2.0%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Lyon winDrawFenerbahçe win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Lyon 39%Draw 30%Fenerbahçe 31%

39%30%31%

39%

Lyon Win

58%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Lyon and Fenerbahçe. Wins shown from Lyon’s perspective: 2 drawn · Fenerbahçe 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-26	Lyon	1 – 2	Fenerbahçe	L
2026-08-18	Fenerbahçe	1 – 1	Lyon	D
2025-01-23	Fenerbahçe	0 – 0	Lyon	D

📈 Recent form

Lyon

Lyon come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes.

WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League
DParis FC 0-0 LyonLigue 1
WLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1

Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 8-0 at home to Eyüpspor. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Beşiktaş.

WFenerbahçe 8-0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
DGaziantep FK 0-0 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
LFenerbahçe 1-2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
WSamsunspor 0-2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lyon

K. MerahAnkle Injury

Fenerbahçe

K. AkturkogluConcussion
M. AsensioMuscle Injury
Diego CarlosNot in squad
A. DioufLacking Match Fitness
M. GunokMuscle Injury
D. LivakovicTransfer negotiations
O. MimovicNot in squad
J. OosterwoldeAchilles Tendon Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lyon at 39% to win and Fenerbahçe at 31%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lyon Win	39%	50%	@ 1.87
Fenerbahçe Win	31%	24%	@ 3.90
Draw	30%	26%	@ 3.55

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lyon or Draw at 1.24 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lyon or Draw	67%	76%	@ 1.24
Fenerbahçe or Draw	59%	50%	@ 1.89

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	78%	@ 1.18
Under 3.5	65%	66%	@ 1.42
Over 2.5	58%	55%	@ 1.70
Under 2.5	42%	45%	@ 2.08
Over 3.5	35%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	20%	22%	@ 4.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	60%	58%	@ 1.60
BTTS No	40%	42%	@ 2.18

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lyon or Fenerbahçe is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fenerbahçe +2	87%	84%	1.13
Fenerbahçe +1.75	84%	77%	@ 1.23
Fenerbahçe +1.5	81%	–	@ 1.31
Fenerbahçe +1.25	76%	69%	@ 1.38
Lyon +0.75	72%	80%	1.18
Fenerbahçe +1	70%	65%	@ 1.48
Lyon +0.5	67%	74%	1.26
Fenerbahçe +0.75	65%	57%	@ 1.68
Lyon +0.25	60%	71%	1.33
Fenerbahçe +0.5	59%	50%	@ 1.87
Lyon 0	54%	67%	1.42
Fenerbahçe +0.25	53%	43%	@ 2.21
Lyon -0.25	47%	57%	1.67
Fenerbahçe 0	46%	33%	@ 2.85
Lyon -0.5	41%	50%	1.90
Fenerbahçe -0.25	40%	29%	@ 3.31
Lyon -0.75	35%	43%	2.19
Fenerbahçe -0.5	33%	26%	@ 3.66
Lyon -1	30%	35%	2.69
Fenerbahçe -0.75	28%	20%	@ 4.80
Lyon -1.25	24%	31%	3.08
Lyon -1.75	16%	23%	4.10
Lyon -2	13%	16%	5.90

📈 How the market moved

Lyon 50%Draw 26%Fenerbahçe 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?

Our model's main pick is Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?

Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.4 scoreline for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe.

What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Lyon and 1.36 for Fenerbahçe. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lyon and Fenerbahçe play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.