⚽ Ligue 2

Montpellier vs Boulogne Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Montpellier vs Boulogne in the Ligue 2. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Montpellier face Boulogne in the Ligue 2, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Montpellier win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.1-0.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Montpellier vs Boulogne with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.37

92%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.13 – 0.45 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	20.6%	9.3%	2.1%	0.3%	0.0%
1	23.3%	10.5%	2.4%	0.4%	0.0%
2	13.2%	5.9%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%
3	5.0%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
4	1.4%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Montpellier winDrawBoulogne win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Montpellier vs Boulogne is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.37, the selection our model is most confident in at 92%. On the match result, the model rates a Montpellier win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (79%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.01 (+58.5% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 2.01, 79% model probability, +58.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Montpellier 52%Draw 34%Boulogne 14%

52%34%14%

52%

Montpellier Win

79%

Under 2.5 goals

+58.5%

Best value: Under 2.5

📈 Recent form

Montpellier

Montpellier come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Rodez. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WDunkerque 0-1 MontpellierLigue 2
WNancy 0-1 MontpellierLigue 2
DMontpellier 1-1 DijonLigue 2
WMontpellier 4-2 RodezFriendlies Clubs
WClermont Foot 0-1 MontpellierFriendlies Clubs

Boulogne

Boulogne come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 4. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Guingamp.

DBoulogne 1-1 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
LGuingamp 1-0 BoulogneLigue 2
DBoulogne 0-0 NancyLigue 2
DValenciennes 1-1 BoulogneFriendlies Clubs
LBoulogne 0-1 RouenFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Montpellier at 52% to win and Boulogne at 14%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes a Montpellier win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	34%	@ 3.93	+32.5%
Montpellier Win	52%	@ 1.65	-13.3%
Boulogne Win	14%	@ 5.02	-31.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-0.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 79% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	53%	@ 3.83	+103.5%
Under 2.5	79%	@ 2.01	+58.5%
Under 3.5	92%	@ 1.37	+26.6%
Over 1.5	47%	@ 1.25	-41.4%
Over 2.5	21%	@ 1.81	-61.7%
Over 3.5	8%	@ 3.03	-76.9%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Montpellier vs Boulogne?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.37, with 92% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.01 (+58.5% value).

Who is the favourite for Montpellier vs Boulogne?

Our model makes a Montpellier win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.1-0.5 scoreline for Montpellier vs Boulogne.

What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs Boulogne?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.13 for Montpellier and 0.45 for Boulogne. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Montpellier and Boulogne play?

Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.