⚽ Championship
Wrexham vs Birmingham Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Wrexham vs Birmingham in the Championship. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Wrexham 1-2 Birmingham
Wrexham vs Birmingham finished 1-2. Birmingham won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Wrexham face Birmingham in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Birmingham won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Wrexham win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.6-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Wrexham vs Birmingham with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 13.1% | 12.0% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.3% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Wrexham vs Birmingham comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.26, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Wrexham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (53%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Wrexham and Birmingham. Wins shown from Wrexham’s perspective: Birmingham 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wrexham | 1 – 2 | Birmingham | L |
| 2026-04-12 | Birmingham | 2 – 0 | Wrexham | L |
📈 Recent form
Wrexham come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Millwall. Their only defeat in that run was 0-6 at West Ham.
- WWrexham 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
- LWest Ham 6-0 WrexhamChampionship
- DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
- DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
- WMillwall 0-3 WrexhamChampionship
Birmingham come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Derby. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Norwich.
- DBirmingham 2-2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- WDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
- LNorwich 2-1 BirminghamChampionship
- DBirmingham 2-2 WolvesChampionship
- DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- L. CacaceCalf Injury
- S. RevanHamstring Injury
- B. SheafNot in squad
- G. ThomasonThigh Injury
- L. BuchananKnee Injury
- T. Gardner-HickmanInjury
- M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Wrexham at 41% to win and Birmingham at 30%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Wrexham win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham Win | 41% | 38% | @ 2.43 |
| Birmingham Win | 30% | 33% | @ 2.85 |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Wrexham or Draw at 1.40 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham or Draw | 69% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| Birmingham or Draw | 57% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 76% | 74% | @ 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | @ 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 46% | @ 2.00 |
| Under 1.5 | 29% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 53% | 47% | @ 1.96 |
| BTTS Yes | 47% | 53% | @ 1.76 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Wrexham or Birmingham is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham +1.5 | 87% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Birmingham +1.75 | 83% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Wrexham +1.25 | 83% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Birmingham +1.5 | 80% | 80% | 1.17 |
| Wrexham +1 | 78% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Birmingham +1.25 | 74% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Wrexham +0.75 | 74% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Wrexham +0.5 | 69% | 67% | 1.40 |
| Birmingham +1 | 68% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Birmingham +0.75 | 63% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Wrexham +0.25 | 62% | 62% | 1.52 |
| Birmingham +0.5 | 57% | 60% | 1.56 |
| Wrexham 0 | 56% | 55% | 1.74 |
| Birmingham +0.25 | 51% | 54% | 1.79 |
| Wrexham -0.25 | 49% | 46% | @ 2.10 |
| Birmingham 0 | 44% | 45% | 2.09 |
| Wrexham -0.5 | 43% | 40% | @ 2.37 |
| Birmingham -0.25 | 38% | 38% | 2.52 |
| Wrexham -0.75 | 37% | 33% | @ 2.90 |
| Wrexham -1 | 32% | 24% | @ 3.93 |
| Birmingham -0.5 | 31% | 33% | 2.84 |
| Birmingham -0.75 | 26% | 26% | 3.68 |
| Wrexham -1.25 | 26% | 22% | @ 4.42 |
| Birmingham -1 | 22% | 18% | @ 5.32 |
| Wrexham -1.5 | 20% | 20% | 4.58 |
| Wrexham -1.75 | 17% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Birmingham -1.25 | 17% | 17% | 5.75 |
| Birmingham -1.5 | 13% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Wrexham vs Birmingham?
Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.26, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Wrexham vs Birmingham?
Our model makes a Wrexham win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.9 scoreline for Wrexham vs Birmingham.
What is the predicted score for Wrexham vs Birmingham?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.57 for Wrexham and 0.91 for Birmingham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Wrexham and Birmingham play?
Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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