⚽ Premier League

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City in the Premier League. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Crystal Palace face Manchester City in the Premier League, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Manchester City won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 60%, projecting a 1.0-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.49

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.03 – 1.85 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	10.4%	9.6%	5.9%	2.7%
1	5.8%	10.7%	9.9%	6.1%	2.8%
2	3.0%	5.5%	5.1%	3.1%	1.5%
3	1.0%	1.9%	1.7%	1.1%	0.5%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Crystal Palace winDrawManchester City win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.49, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Manchester City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 60%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.49, 67% model probability, +0.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Crystal Palace 18%Draw 22%Manchester City 60%

18%22%60%

60%

Manchester City Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

+0.4%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Crystal Palace and Manchester City. Wins shown from Crystal Palace’s perspective: 1 drawn · Manchester City 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-13	Manchester City	3 – 0	Crystal Palace	L
2025-12-14	Crystal Palace	0 – 3	Manchester City	L
2025-04-12	Manchester City	5 – 2	Crystal Palace	L
2024-12-07	Crystal Palace	2 – 2	Manchester City	D
2024-04-06	Crystal Palace	2 – 4	Manchester City	L

📈 Recent form

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Al Ula. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Everton.

LEverton 2-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
LSC Freiburg 3-0 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
WFulham 1-2 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
WCrystal Palace 3-1 Al UlaComo Cup
LBromley 3-0 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs

Manchester City

Manchester City come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Atletico Madrid. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Arsenal.

LArsenal 3-0 Manchester CityCommunity Shield
WManchester City 3-1 Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs
WK-League Stars 1-3 Manchester CityFriendlies Clubs
LManchester City 1-2 Aston VillaPremier League
DBournemouth 1-1 Manchester CityPremier League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Crystal Palace at 18% to win and Manchester City at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Crystal Palace Win	18%	@ 5.37	-2.4%
Draw	22%	@ 4.33	-5.6%
Manchester City Win	60%	@ 1.56	-6.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	45%	@ 2.25	+1.4%
Under 3.5	67%	@ 1.49	+0.4%
Over 2.5	55%	@ 1.65	-9.4%
Over 3.5	33%	@ 2.61	-14.9%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.49, with 67% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?

Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 60%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.9 scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City.

What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.03 for Crystal Palace and 1.85 for Manchester City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Crystal Palace and Manchester City play?

Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.