⚽ Premier League
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City in the Premier League. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City finished 1-4. Manchester City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Crystal Palace face Manchester City in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Manchester City won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 60%, projecting a 1.0-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Manchester City 0 at odds 1.28, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Manchester City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 60%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Crystal Palace and Manchester City. Wins shown from Crystal Palace’s perspective: 1 drawn · Manchester City 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Crystal Palace | 1 – 4 | Manchester City | L |
| 2026-05-13 | Manchester City | 3 – 0 | Crystal Palace | L |
| 2025-12-14 | Crystal Palace | 0 – 3 | Manchester City | L |
| 2025-04-12 | Manchester City | 5 – 2 | Crystal Palace | L |
| 2024-12-07 | Crystal Palace | 2 – 2 | Manchester City | D |
📈 Recent form
Crystal Palace come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Lech Poznan. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Ipswich.
- DLeeds 0-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- WCrystal Palace 4-0 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League
- LCrystal Palace 2-3 IpswichPremier League
- WCrystal Palace 3-0 MiddlesbroughLeague Cup
- WFulham 2-3 Crystal PalacePremier League
Manchester City come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Norwich. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WManchester City 5-3 SunderlandPremier League
- WManchester City 5-0 NorwichLeague Cup
- WManchester United 0-1 Manchester CityPremier League
- WFC Porto 0-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
- WManchester City 1-0 CoventryPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. MatetaHamstring Injury
- C. RiadKnee Injury
- I. SarrInjury
- J. DokuCalf Injury
- M. NunesInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Crystal Palace at 18% to win and Manchester City at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City Win | 60% | 58% | @ 1.65 |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
| Crystal Palace Win | 18% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Manchester City or Draw at 1.17 (82% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City or Draw | 82% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Crystal Palace or Draw | 40% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 | 67% | 65% | @ 1.46 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 43% | @ 2.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 56% | @ 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 44% | @ 2.14 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Crystal Palace or Manchester City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City +0.75 | 85% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Manchester City +0.5 | 82% | 80% | 1.17 |
| Manchester City +0.25 | 76% | 77% | 1.23 |
| Crystal Palace +2 | 74% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Manchester City 0 | 71% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Crystal Palace +1.75 | 70% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Manchester City -0.25 | 65% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Crystal Palace +1.5 | 65% | 65% | 1.44 |
| Manchester City -0.5 | 60% | 58% | 1.64 |
| Crystal Palace +1.25 | 59% | 61% | 1.55 |
| Manchester City -0.75 | 54% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Crystal Palace +1 | 53% | 55% | 1.73 |
| Manchester City -1 | 47% | 45% | @ 2.15 |
| Crystal Palace +0.75 | 46% | 48% | 2.02 |
| Manchester City -1.25 | 41% | 39% | @ 2.46 |
| Crystal Palace +0.5 | 40% | 42% | 2.24 |
| Manchester City -1.5 | 35% | 35% | 2.73 |
| Crystal Palace +0.25 | 35% | 35% | 2.71 |
| Manchester City -1.75 | 30% | 28% | @ 3.42 |
| Crystal Palace 0 | 29% | 26% | @ 3.69 |
| Manchester City -2 | 26% | 22% | @ 4.37 |
| Crystal Palace -0.25 | 24% | 23% | 4.22 |
| Crystal Palace -0.5 | 18% | 20% | 4.60 |
| Crystal Palace -0.75 | 15% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
Our model's main pick is Manchester City 0 at odds 1.28, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 60%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.9 scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.03 for Crystal Palace and 1.85 for Manchester City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Crystal Palace and Manchester City play?
Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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