⚽ Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Santa Clara Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alverca vs Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Alverca face Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Alverca have 0 wins from their last 5, while Santa Clara have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Santa Clara won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santa Clara win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.1-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alverca vs Santa Clara with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.48

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.08 – 1.21 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	12.3%	7.4%	3.0%	0.9%
1	10.9%	13.2%	8.0%	3.2%	1.0%
2	5.9%	7.1%	4.3%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.1%	2.6%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Alverca winDrawSanta Clara win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alverca vs Santa Clara is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.48, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Santa Clara win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Alverca or Draw at odds 1.60 (+0.2% model value).

Best value

Alverca or Draw at odds 1.60, 63% model probability, +0.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Alverca 34%Draw 32%Santa Clara 35%

34%32%35%

35%

Santa Clara Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

+0.2%

Best value: Alverca or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Alverca and Santa Clara. Wins shown from Alverca’s perspective: 1 drawn · Santa Clara 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-21	Alverca	1 – 1	Santa Clara	D
2025-09-20	Santa Clara	2 – 1	Alverca	L

📈 Recent form

Alverca

Alverca come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Sporting CP B. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Sporting CP.

LSporting CP 3-1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
DAlverca 2-2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
WAlverca 1-0 Sporting CP BFriendlies Clubs
WAlverca 1-0 MafraFriendlies Clubs

Santa Clara

Santa Clara come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Arouca. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WAcademico Viseu 0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
DSanta Clara 2-2 NacionalPrimeira Liga
WSanta Clara 3-0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
DSanta Clara 1-1 Felgueiras 1932Friendlies Clubs
WSanta Clara 2-1 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alverca at 34% to win and Santa Clara at 35%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Santa Clara win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Alverca Win	34%	@ 3.25	+9.5%
Draw	32%	@ 3.05	-4.0%
Santa Clara Win	35%	@ 2.30	-19.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Alverca or Draw at 1.60 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Alverca or Draw	63%	@ 1.60	+0.2%
Santa Clara or Draw	64%	@ 1.33	-15.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	67%	@ 1.48	-1.3%
Over 2.5	40%	@ 2.40	-3.7%
Under 3.5	80%	@ 1.18	-5.4%
Over 3.5	20%	@ 4.75	-5.7%
Under 2.5	60%	@ 1.55	-7.2%
Under 1.5	33%	@ 2.65	-11.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	54%	@ 1.73	-7.0%
BTTS Yes	46%	@ 2.00	-7.5%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alverca vs Santa Clara?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.48, with 67% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Alverca or Draw at 1.60 (+0.2% value).

Who is the favourite for Alverca vs Santa Clara?

Our model makes a Santa Clara win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.2 scoreline for Alverca vs Santa Clara.

What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Santa Clara?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.08 for Alverca and 1.21 for Santa Clara. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alverca and Santa Clara play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.