⚽ Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Maritimo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arouca vs Maritimo in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Arouca face Maritimo in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Arouca have 4 wins from their last 5, while Maritimo have 2 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.5-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arouca vs Maritimo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.38

79%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.49 – 1.42 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.4%	7.7%	5.5%	2.6%	0.9%
1	8.1%	11.5%	8.2%	3.9%	1.4%
2	6.0%	8.6%	6.1%	2.9%	1.0%
3	3.0%	4.3%	3.0%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.1%	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Arouca winDrawMaritimo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Arouca vs Maritimo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (59%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.10 (+16.8% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 2.10, 56% model probability, +16.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Arouca 24%Draw 42%Maritimo 34%

24%42%34%

42%

Draw

56%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

+16.8%

Best value: Over 2.5

📈 Recent form

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Moreirense. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 4-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WGuimaraes 0-1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WLusitânia Lourosa 0-2 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
LSanta Clara 3-0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs

Maritimo

Maritimo come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Camacha. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DMaritimo 2-2 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
WFamalicao 1-2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
WMaritimo 1-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
DMaritimo 1-1 EstrelaFriendlies Clubs
WMaritimo 2-0 CamachaFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Arouca at 24% to win and Maritimo at 34%, with the draw at 42%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	42%	@ 3.20	+35.0%
Maritimo Win	34%	@ 2.92	-1.8%
Arouca Win	24%	@ 2.40	-42.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Maritimo or Draw at 1.55 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Maritimo or Draw	68%	@ 1.55	+5.2%
Arouca or Draw	58%	@ 1.38	-19.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	33%	@ 3.85	+28.1%
Over 2.5	56%	@ 2.10	+16.8%
Over 1.5	79%	@ 1.38	+8.6%
Under 3.5	67%	@ 1.25	-16.6%
Under 2.5	44%	@ 1.70	-24.6%
Under 1.5	21%	@ 3.00	-36.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	59%	@ 1.83	+7.5%
BTTS No	41%	@ 1.85	-23.7%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arouca vs Maritimo?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.10 (+16.8% value).

Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Maritimo?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline for Arouca vs Maritimo.

What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Maritimo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Arouca and 1.42 for Maritimo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Arouca and Maritimo play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.