⚽ Premier League
Chelsea vs Brighton Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chelsea vs Brighton in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Result: Chelsea 4-3 Brighton
Chelsea vs Brighton finished 4-3. Chelsea won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Chelsea face Brighton in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Chelsea have 2 wins from their last 5, while Brighton have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Chelsea won 2, Brighton won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Chelsea win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.7-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chelsea vs Brighton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Chelsea vs Brighton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Brighton with a +1.75 start at odds 1.26, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Chelsea win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (62%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Chelsea and Brighton. Wins shown from Chelsea’s perspective: Chelsea 2 · Brighton 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Chelsea | 4 – 3 | Brighton | W |
| 2026-04-21 | Brighton | 3 – 0 | Chelsea | L |
| 2025-09-27 | Chelsea | 1 – 3 | Brighton | L |
| 2025-02-14 | Brighton | 3 – 0 | Chelsea | L |
| 2024-09-28 | Chelsea | 4 – 2 | Brighton | W |
📈 Recent form
Chelsea come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 6-3 at home to Leeds. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Brentford.
- LBrentford 3-0 ChelseaPremier League
- DChelsea 2-2 Hull CityPremier League
- WChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup
- LArsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
- WChelsea 4-3 BrightonPremier League
Brighton come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Coventry. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 3-4 at Chelsea.
- WBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
- WManchester United 2-3 BrightonLeague Cup
- WCoventry 0-5 BrightonPremier League
- DBrighton 1-1 LeedsPremier League
- LChelsea 4-3 BrightonPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- E. FernandezCoach's decision
- J. HendersonWrist Injury
- M. PalestraInjury
- E. FergusonAnkle Injury
- J. HinshelwoodInjury
- Y. MintehInjury
- K. MitomaHamstring Injury
- M. OrozcoInjury
- S. TzimasKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Chelsea at 40% to win and Brighton at 32%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Chelsea win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Win | 40% | 51% | @ 1.86 |
| Brighton Win | 32% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chelsea or Draw at 1.23 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea or Draw | 67% | 76% | @ 1.23 |
| Brighton or Draw | 59% | 49% | @ 1.92 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 80% | @ 1.19 |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 58% | @ 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 20% | @ 4.70 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 38% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Chelsea or Brighton is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton +2 | 87% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Chelsea +1.5 | 86% | 88% | 1.04 |
| Brighton +1.75 | 84% | 75% | @ 1.26 |
| Brighton +1.5 | 81% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| Chelsea +1 | 77% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Brighton +1.25 | 75% | 67% | @ 1.41 |
| Chelsea +0.75 | 72% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Brighton +1 | 70% | 63% | @ 1.51 |
| Chelsea +0.5 | 67% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Brighton +0.75 | 64% | 55% | @ 1.74 |
| Chelsea +0.25 | 61% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Brighton +0.5 | 59% | 49% | @ 1.97 |
| Chelsea 0 | 54% | 67% | 1.43 |
| Brighton +0.25 | 52% | 42% | @ 2.29 |
| Chelsea -0.25 | 48% | 58% | 1.64 |
| Brighton 0 | 46% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| Chelsea -0.5 | 41% | 51% | 1.86 |
| Brighton -0.25 | 39% | 28% | @ 3.38 |
| Chelsea -0.75 | 36% | 45% | 2.12 |
| Brighton -0.5 | 33% | 25% | @ 3.72 |
| Chelsea -1 | 30% | 37% | 2.56 |
| Brighton -0.75 | 28% | 20% | @ 4.65 |
| Chelsea -1.25 | 25% | 33% | 2.92 |
| Brighton -1 | 23% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Chelsea -1.5 | 19% | 29% | 3.24 |
| Chelsea -1.75 | 16% | 25% | 3.89 |
| Brighton -1.5 | 14% | 12% | @ 8.00 |
| Chelsea -2 | 13% | 17% | 5.75 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chelsea vs Brighton?
Our model's main pick is Brighton with a +1.75 start at odds 1.26, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Brighton?
Our model makes a Chelsea win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline for Chelsea vs Brighton.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Brighton?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.68 for Chelsea and 1.44 for Brighton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Chelsea and Brighton play?
Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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