⚽ Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs Moreirense Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Casa Pia vs Moreirense in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Result: Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense
Casa Pia vs Moreirense finished 0-1. Moreirense won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Casa Pia face Moreirense in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Casa Pia have 1 win from their last 5, while Moreirense have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, Moreirense won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Casa Pia win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.1-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Casa Pia vs Moreirense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 13.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Casa Pia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Casa Pia and Moreirense. Wins shown from Casa Pia’s perspective: Casa Pia 1 · 1 drawn · Moreirense 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Casa Pia | 0 – 1 | Moreirense | L |
| 2026-03-01 | Casa Pia | 1 – 1 | Moreirense | D |
| 2025-09-27 | Moreirense | 2 – 1 | Casa Pia | L |
| 2025-02-15 | Moreirense | 3 – 2 | Casa Pia | L |
| 2024-09-14 | Casa Pia | 3 – 1 | Moreirense | W |
📈 Recent form
Casa Pia come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Estoril. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to FC Porto.
- WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- LCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- LCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- LGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Moreirense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Benfica.
- DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- WMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
- LMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- LFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- WCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Casa Pia at 36% to win and Moreirense at 34%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Casa Pia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia Win | 36% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
| Moreirense Win | 34% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Casa Pia or Draw at 1.32 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia or Draw | 64% | 70% | @ 1.32 |
| Moreirense or Draw | 62% | 61% | @ 1.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78% | 77% | @ 1.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 66% | @ 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 59% | @ 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 41% | @ 2.23 |
| Under 1.5 | 31% | 34% | @ 2.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 23% | @ 4.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 51% | 52% | @ 1.77 |
| BTTS Yes | 49% | 48% | @ 1.90 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Casa Pia or Moreirense is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense +1.75 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Moreirense +1.5 | 83% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Casa Pia +1.25 | 80% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Moreirense +1.25 | 78% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Casa Pia +1 | 74% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Moreirense +1 | 72% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Casa Pia +0.75 | 69% | 77% | 1.25 |
| Moreirense +0.75 | 67% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Casa Pia +0.5 | 64% | 69% | 1.36 |
| Moreirense +0.5 | 62% | 59% | 1.58 |
| Casa Pia +0.25 | 58% | 64% | 1.48 |
| Moreirense +0.25 | 55% | 53% | @ 1.82 |
| Casa Pia 0 | 51% | 58% | 1.64 |
| Moreirense 0 | 49% | 42% | @ 2.24 |
| Casa Pia -0.25 | 45% | 47% | 2.06 |
| Moreirense -0.25 | 42% | 36% | @ 2.69 |
| Casa Pia -0.5 | 38% | 41% | 2.32 |
| Moreirense -0.5 | 36% | 31% | @ 3.06 |
| Casa Pia -0.75 | 33% | 33% | 2.90 |
| Moreirense -0.75 | 31% | 23% | @ 4.06 |
| Casa Pia -1 | 28% | 24% | @ 4.05 |
| Moreirense -1 | 26% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Casa Pia -1.25 | 22% | 21% | @ 4.58 |
| Moreirense -1.25 | 20% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Casa Pia -1.5 | 17% | 18% | 5.25 |
| Casa Pia -1.75 | 14% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.
Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our model makes a Casa Pia win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline for Casa Pia vs Moreirense.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.14 for Casa Pia and 1.26 for Moreirense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Casa Pia and Moreirense play?
Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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