⚽ Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs Moreirense Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Casa Pia vs Moreirense in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Casa Pia face Moreirense in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Casa Pia have 1 win from their last 5, while Moreirense have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, Moreirense won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Casa Pia win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Casa Pia vs Moreirense with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.40

70%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.17 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	11.1%	6.9%	2.9%	0.9%
1	10.4%	13.0%	8.1%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.1%	7.6%	4.8%	2.0%	0.6%
3	2.4%	3.0%	1.9%	0.8%	0.2%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Casa Pia winDrawMoreirense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, the selection our model is most confident in at 70%. On the match result, the model rates a Casa Pia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (51%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Moreirense or Draw at odds 1.67 (+3.0% model value).

Best value

Moreirense or Draw at odds 1.67, 62% model probability, +3.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Casa Pia 37%Draw 30%Moreirense 34%

37%30%34%

37%

Casa Pia Win

56%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS no

+3.0%

Best value: Moreirense or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Casa Pia and Moreirense. Wins shown from Casa Pia’s perspective: Casa Pia 1 · 1 drawn · Moreirense 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-01	Casa Pia	1 – 1	Moreirense	D
2025-09-27	Moreirense	2 – 1	Casa Pia	L
2025-02-15	Moreirense	3 – 2	Casa Pia	L
2024-09-14	Casa Pia	3 – 1	Moreirense	W
2024-05-12	Casa Pia	0 – 1	Moreirense	L

📈 Recent form

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 17. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at GIL Vicente.

LGIL Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 0-7 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LMaritimo 1-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LLeixoes 6-2 Casa PiaFriendlies Clubs
LBenfica B 1-0 Casa PiaFriendlies Clubs

Moreirense

Moreirense come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Amarante. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Arouca.

LArouca 4-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
DMoreirense 2-2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 2-0 AmaranteFriendlies Clubs
DGIL Vicente 2-2 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs
LSanta Clara 2-1 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Casa Pia at 37% to win and Moreirense at 34%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Casa Pia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Moreirense Win	34%	@ 3.45	+16.4%
Draw	30%	@ 3.20	-5.6%
Casa Pia Win	37%	@ 2.14	-21.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Moreirense or Draw at 1.67 (62% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Moreirense or Draw	62%	@ 1.67	+3.0%
Casa Pia or Draw	65%	@ 1.30	-15.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	70%	@ 1.40	-2.6%
Over 2.5	44%	@ 2.20	-4.2%
Over 3.5	22%	@ 4.20	-5.3%
Under 3.5	78%	@ 1.22	-5.5%
Under 2.5	56%	@ 1.65	-6.9%
Under 1.5	30%	@ 2.88	-12.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	49%	@ 1.91	-6.4%
BTTS No	51%	@ 1.80	-8.2%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with 70% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Moreirense or Draw at 1.67 (+3.0% value).

Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

Our model makes a Casa Pia win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline for Casa Pia vs Moreirense.

What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.17 for Casa Pia and 1.25 for Moreirense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Casa Pia and Moreirense play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.