⚽ Championship
Portsmouth vs Derby Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Portsmouth vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 01 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Portsmouth 0-2 Derby
Portsmouth vs Derby finished 0-2. Derby won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.32, landed.
Portsmouth face Derby in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Tuesday 01 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Portsmouth have 2 wins from their last 5, while Derby have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Derby won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Portsmouth win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Portsmouth vs Derby with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Portsmouth vs Derby comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Portsmouth win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (57%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Portsmouth and Derby. Wins shown from Portsmouth’s perspective: 1 drawn · Derby 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Portsmouth | 0 – 2 | Derby | L |
| 2025-04-12 | Portsmouth | 2 – 2 | Derby | D |
| 2024-12-13 | Derby | 4 – 0 | Portsmouth | L |
📈 Recent form
Portsmouth come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Cardiff. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Derby.
- DPortsmouth 2-2 BlackburnChampionship
- DCharlton 0-0 PortsmouthChampionship
- WPortsmouth 2-0 CardiffChampionship
- LPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
- LBristol City 2-1 PortsmouthChampionship
Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.
- DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
- LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
- LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
- WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- K. AndersonMuscle Injury
- J. BursikCalf Injury
- M. KosznovszkyKnee Injury
- J. MurphyInjury
- C. OgilvieKnee Injury
- F. UmehHamstring Injury
- T. WaddinghamAnkle Injury
- J. FarrellGroin Injury
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Portsmouth at 49% to win and Derby at 24%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Portsmouth win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth Win | 49% | 44% | @ 2.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | @ 3.30 |
| Derby Win | 24% | 28% | @ 3.30 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Portsmouth or Draw at 1.30 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth or Draw | 75% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Derby or Draw | 50% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 70% | @ 1.32 |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | 75% | @ 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 46% | @ 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 54% | @ 1.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 51% | @ 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 43% | 49% | @ 1.91 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Portsmouth or Derby is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth +1.5 | 91% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Portsmouth +1.25 | 87% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Portsmouth +1 | 83% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Portsmouth +0.75 | 79% | 78% | 1.23 |
| Derby +1.75 | 78% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Portsmouth +0.5 | 75% | 71% | 1.32 |
| Derby +1.5 | 74% | 77% | 1.20 |
| Portsmouth +0.25 | 68% | 67% | 1.43 |
| Derby +1.25 | 68% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Portsmouth 0 | 62% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Derby +1 | 62% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Derby +0.75 | 56% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Portsmouth -0.25 | 56% | 50% | @ 1.92 |
| Derby +0.5 | 50% | 56% | 1.67 |
| Portsmouth -0.5 | 50% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
| Derby +0.25 | 44% | 50% | 1.95 |
| Portsmouth -0.75 | 44% | 36% | @ 2.65 |
| Portsmouth -1 | 38% | 27% | @ 3.52 |
| Derby 0 | 38% | 40% | 2.37 |
| Portsmouth -1.25 | 32% | 24% | @ 3.94 |
| Derby -0.25 | 32% | 33% | 2.87 |
| Portsmouth -1.5 | 26% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
| Derby -0.5 | 25% | 29% | 3.24 |
| Portsmouth -1.75 | 22% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Derby -0.75 | 21% | 22% | 4.26 |
| Derby -1 | 17% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Derby -1.25 | 13% | 14% | 7.00 |
| Derby -1.5 | 9% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.
Who is the favourite for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our model makes a Portsmouth win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Portsmouth vs Derby.
What is the predicted score for Portsmouth vs Derby?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.62 for Portsmouth and 1.23 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Portsmouth and Derby play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 01 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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