vs
⚽ Championship
Burnley vs Middlesbrough Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burnley vs Middlesbrough in the Championship. Kick-off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough
Burnley vs Middlesbrough finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Burnley Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at 1.41, landed.
Burnley face Middlesbrough in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 66%, projecting a 1.7-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burnley vs Middlesbrough with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 12.2% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.3% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Burnley vs Middlesbrough is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Burnley Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.41, the selection our model is most confident in at 88%. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 66%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (50%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Burnley win at odds 2.65 (+74.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Burnley and Middlesbrough. Wins shown from Burnley’s perspective: 3 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Burnley | 1 – 1 | Middlesbrough | D |
| 2024-12-29 | Middlesbrough | 0 – 0 | Burnley | D |
| 2024-12-06 | Burnley | 1 – 1 | Middlesbrough | D |
📈 Recent form
Burnley come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Norwich.
- DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- LNorwich 4-1 BurnleyChampionship
- DBradford 0-0 BurnleyLeague Cup
- LWest Brom 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
- DBurnley 2-2 West HamChampionship
Middlesbrough come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to West Brom. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Blackburn.
- DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- WMiddlesbrough 3-1 West BromChampionship
- WDoncaster 1-3 MiddlesbroughLeague Cup
- LBlackburn 2-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- WMiddlesbrough 2-1 LincolnChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- E. AgyeiInjury
- J. BanelInjury
- A. BarnesInjury
- J. BeyerHamstring Injury
- J. CullenKnee Injury
- B. HumphreysNot in squad
- J. LaurentSuspended (red card)
- A. BanguraCoach's decision
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Burnley at 66% to win and Middlesbrough at 14%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 66% | @ 2.65 | +74.6% |
| Draw | 20% | @ 3.40 | -33.0% |
| Middlesbrough Win | 14% | @ 2.48 | -64.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.52 (86% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or Draw | 86% | @ 1.52 | +30.2% |
| Middlesbrough or Draw | 34% | @ 1.45 | -50.0% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 26% | @ 3.95 | +4.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | @ 2.00 | +2.7% |
| Under 3.5 | 73% | @ 1.37 | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | @ 1.22 | -10.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | @ 1.74 | -15.3% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | @ 2.90 | -22.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 50% | @ 2.20 | +9.8% |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | @ 1.60 | -19.9% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Burnley or Middlesbrough is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley -1.75 | 36% | @ 7.00 | +151.4% |
| Burnley -1 | 53% | @ 4.60 | +144.9% |
| Burnley -1.25 | 47% | @ 5.00 | +135.4% |
| Burnley -1.5 | 41% | @ 5.50 | +125.2% |
| Burnley -0.75 | 59% | @ 3.36 | +99.5% |
| Burnley -0.5 | 66% | @ 2.65 | +73.6% |
| Burnley -0.25 | 71% | @ 2.40 | +69.0% |
| Burnley 0 | 76% | @ 2.03 | +53.5% |
| Burnley +0.25 | 81% | @ 1.75 | +40.7% |
| Burnley +0.5 | 86% | @ 1.55 | +32.8% |
| Burnley +0.75 | 88% | @ 1.41 | +24.3% |
| Burnley +1 | 91% | @ 1.25 | +13.8% |
| Burnley +1.5 | 96% | @ 1.19 | +13.8% |
| Burnley +1.25 | 93% | @ 1.22 | +13.6% |
| Burnley +1.75 | 96% | @ 1.12 | +8.0% |
| Middlesbrough +1.75 | 64% | 1.10 | -29.5% |
| Middlesbrough +1.5 | 59% | 1.15 | -32.1% |
| Middlesbrough +1.25 | 53% | 1.17 | -38.1% |
| Middlesbrough +1 | 47% | 1.20 | -43.9% |
| Middlesbrough +0.75 | 41% | 1.33 | -46.0% |
| Middlesbrough +0.5 | 34% | 1.45 | -49.9% |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 29% | 1.59 | -53.2% |
| Middlesbrough 0 | 24% | 1.81 | -55.9% |
| Middlesbrough -0.25 | 19% | 2.10 | -59.3% |
| Middlesbrough -1 | 9% | 3.90 | -63.5% |
| Middlesbrough -0.75 | 12% | 2.90 | -65.7% |
| Middlesbrough -0.5 | 14% | 2.39 | -65.8% |
| Middlesbrough -1.25 | 7% | 4.29 | -70.5% |
| Middlesbrough -1.75 | 4% | 6.00 | -78.6% |
| Middlesbrough -1.5 | 4% | 4.50 | -80.3% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our main pick is Burnley Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.41, with 88% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Burnley win at 2.65 (+74.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 66%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline for Burnley vs Middlesbrough.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.68 for Burnley and 0.94 for Middlesbrough. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Burnley and Middlesbrough play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 02 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Beşiktaşvs
Erzurumspor FKSüper LigFri 11 Sep17:00
Empolivs
ArezzoSerie BFri 11 Sep17:00
Nancyvs
ReimsLigue 2Reims Asian Handicap +0.5@ 1.36Fri 11 Sep18:00
KV Mechelenvs
AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueKV Mechelen Asian Handicap +1.5@ 1.34Fri 11 Sep18:45
Pisavs
Virtus EntellaSerie BFri 11 Sep19:00
Beneventovs
Hellas VeronaSerie BFri 11 Sep19:00Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.