⚽ Premier League
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Newcastle vs Bournemouth in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Result: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth
Newcastle vs Bournemouth finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Newcastle face Bournemouth in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Newcastle have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bournemouth have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Bournemouth won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bournemouth win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Newcastle vs Bournemouth with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Newcastle vs Bournemouth comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Bournemouth with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bournemouth win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (67%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Newcastle and Bournemouth. Wins shown from Newcastle’s perspective: 3 drawn · Bournemouth 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 2 – 2 | Bournemouth | D |
| 2026-04-18 | Newcastle | 1 – 2 | Bournemouth | L |
| 2025-09-21 | Bournemouth | 0 – 0 | Newcastle | D |
| 2025-01-18 | Newcastle | 1 – 4 | Bournemouth | L |
| 2024-08-25 | Bournemouth | 1 – 1 | Newcastle | D |
📈 Recent form
Newcastle come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Tottenham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-4 at Leeds.
- WNewcastle 2-1 Hull CityPremier League
- LLeeds 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
- WMillwall 0-1 NewcastleLeague Cup
- DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League
- WTottenham 0-2 NewcastlePremier League
Bournemouth come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Lincoln. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Liverpool.
- LBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
- WReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
- DBournemouth 2-2 BrentfordPremier League
- WBournemouth 4-0 LincolnLeague Cup
- DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- D. BurnAnkle Injury
- JoelintonThigh Injury
- W. OsulaInjury
- A. AdliCalf Injury
- J. AraujoThigh Injury
- E. J. KroupiFoot Injury
- V. MilosavljevicInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Newcastle at 36% to win and Bournemouth at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Bournemouth win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth Win | 37% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Newcastle Win | 36% | 44% | @ 2.16 |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bournemouth or Draw at 1.68 (63% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth or Draw | 63% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| Newcastle or Draw | 63% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 | 54% | 61% | @ 1.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 39% | @ 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 40% | @ 2.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | 19% | @ 5.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 63% | @ 1.47 |
| BTTS No | 33% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Newcastle or Bournemouth is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +2 | 89% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Bournemouth +1.75 | 86% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Bournemouth +1.5 | 84% | 75% | @ 1.26 |
| Newcastle +1.5 | 84% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Bournemouth +1.25 | 79% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Newcastle +1.25 | 78% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Bournemouth +1 | 74% | 69% | @ 1.38 |
| Newcastle +1 | 73% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Bournemouth +0.75 | 68% | 61% | @ 1.55 |
| Newcastle +0.75 | 68% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Bournemouth +0.5 | 63% | 55% | @ 1.74 |
| Newcastle +0.5 | 63% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 57% | 48% | @ 2.00 |
| Newcastle +0.25 | 56% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Bournemouth 0 | 50% | 40% | @ 2.42 |
| Newcastle 0 | 50% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Bournemouth -0.25 | 44% | 34% | @ 2.81 |
| Newcastle -0.25 | 43% | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bournemouth -0.5 | 37% | 30% | @ 3.17 |
| Newcastle -0.5 | 37% | 45% | 2.12 |
| Bournemouth -0.75 | 32% | 24% | @ 3.99 |
| Newcastle -0.75 | 32% | 39% | 2.46 |
| Bournemouth -1 | 27% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Newcastle -1 | 26% | 31% | 3.12 |
| Bournemouth -1.25 | 22% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Newcastle -1.25 | 21% | 27% | 3.56 |
| Bournemouth -1.5 | 16% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Newcastle -1.5 | 16% | 25% | 3.70 |
| Newcastle -1.75 | 14% | 20% | 4.65 |
| Newcastle -2 | 11% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our model's main pick is Bournemouth with a +1.5 start at odds 1.26, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our model makes a Bournemouth win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline for Newcastle vs Bournemouth.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.93 for Newcastle and 1.53 for Bournemouth. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Newcastle and Bournemouth play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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