⚽ Premier League

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Newcastle vs Bournemouth in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Newcastle face Bournemouth in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Newcastle have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bournemouth have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Bournemouth won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bournemouth win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Newcastle vs Bournemouth with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.57

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.93 – 1.53 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.1%	4.8%	3.7%	1.9%	0.7%
1	6.1%	9.3%	7.1%	3.6%	1.4%
2	5.9%	9.0%	6.9%	3.5%	1.3%
3	3.8%	5.8%	4.4%	2.2%	0.9%
4	1.8%	2.8%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Newcastle winDrawBournemouth win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Newcastle vs Bournemouth is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.57, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Bournemouth win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (67%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Bournemouth or Draw at odds 1.68 (+6.4% model value).

Best value

Bournemouth or Draw at odds 1.68, 63% model probability, +6.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Newcastle 36%Draw 27%Bournemouth 37%

36%27%37%

37%

Bournemouth Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS yes

+6.4%

Best value: Bournemouth or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Newcastle and Bournemouth. Wins shown from Newcastle’s perspective: 3 drawn · Bournemouth 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-18	Newcastle	1 – 2	Bournemouth	L
2025-09-21	Bournemouth	0 – 0	Newcastle	D
2025-01-18	Newcastle	1 – 4	Bournemouth	L
2024-08-25	Bournemouth	1 – 1	Newcastle	D
2024-02-17	Newcastle	2 – 2	Bournemouth	D

📈 Recent form

Newcastle

Newcastle come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Tottenham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Bayer Leverkusen.

WTottenham 0-2 NewcastlePremier League
WNewcastle 3-2 West BromLeague Cup
DNewcastle 2-2 LiverpoolPremier League
DNewcastle 1-1 StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs
LNewcastle 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs

Bournemouth

Bournemouth come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 10-1 at home to Genoa. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Manchester City.

DBournemouth 1-1 EvertonPremier League
LManchester City 2-1 BournemouthPremier League
LFSV Mainz 05 2-1 BournemouthFriendlies Clubs
DReal Betis 2-2 BournemouthFriendlies Clubs
WBournemouth 10-1 GenoaFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Newcastle

D. BurnAnkle Injury
JoelintonInjury
W. OsulaInjury
V. LivramentoHamstring Injury

Bournemouth

A. AdliInjury
J. AraujoThigh Injury
E. J. KroupiFoot Injury
V. MilosavljevicInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Newcastle at 36% to win and Bournemouth at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Bournemouth win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bournemouth Win	37%	@ 3.15	+15.6%
Draw	27%	@ 3.70	-0.8%
Newcastle Win	36%	@ 2.16	-21.2%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bournemouth or Draw at 1.68 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Bournemouth or Draw	63%	@ 1.68	+6.4%
Newcastle or Draw	63%	@ 1.35	-14.8%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	46%	@ 2.43	+10.5%
Over 2.5	67%	@ 1.57	+5.4%
Over 1.5	86%	@ 1.16	-0.3%
Under 3.5	54%	@ 1.56	-14.9%
Under 2.5	33%	@ 2.40	-21.2%
Under 1.5	14%	@ 5.10	-28.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	67%	@ 1.47	-2.0%
BTTS No	33%	@ 2.55	-15.0%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	55%
Dixon-Coles	Home	37%
GradientBoosting	Away	41%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.29 for the home side, 1.30 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.57, with 67% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Bournemouth or Draw at 1.68 (+6.4% value).

Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Our model makes a Bournemouth win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline for Newcastle vs Bournemouth.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.93 for Newcastle and 1.53 for Bournemouth. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Newcastle and Bournemouth play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.