Sat 5 Sep1-1Finished

⚽ Premier League

Brighton vs Leeds Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Brighton vs Leeds in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Brighton 1-1 Leeds

Brighton vs Leeds finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Brighton face Leeds in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Brighton have 2 wins from their last 5, while Leeds have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Brighton won 1, Leeds won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Brighton win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.7-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Brighton vs Leeds with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Leeds +1.5 @ 1.29

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.66 – 1.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	6.9%	4.0%	1.5%	0.4%
1	10.0%	11.5%	6.6%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.5%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.6%	5.3%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.9%	2.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Brighton winDrawLeeds win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Brighton vs Leeds comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Leeds with a +1.5 start at odds 1.29, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Brighton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Brighton 45%Draw 28%Leeds 27%

45%28%27%

45%

Brighton Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Brighton and Leeds. Wins shown from Brighton’s perspective: Brighton 1 · 1 drawn · Leeds 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-05	Brighton	1 – 1	Leeds	D
2026-05-17	Leeds	1 – 0	Brighton	L
2025-11-01	Brighton	3 – 0	Leeds	W

📈 Recent form

Brighton

Brighton come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Coventry. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 3-4 at Chelsea.

WBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
WManchester United 2-3 BrightonLeague Cup
WCoventry 0-5 BrightonPremier League
DBrighton 1-1 LeedsPremier League
LChelsea 4-3 BrightonPremier League

Leeds

Leeds come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Newcastle. Their only defeat in that run was 3-6 at Chelsea.

DLeeds 0-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
WLeeds 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
LChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup
DBrighton 1-1 LeedsPremier League
DLeeds 1-1 BrentfordPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Brighton

F. AzeezAbdominal strain
E. FergusonAnkle Injury
J. HinshelwoodInjury
Y. MintehInjury
K. MitomaHamstring Injury
G. RutterInjury
M. SvobodaInjury
S. TzimasKnee Injury

Leeds

I. GruevKnee Injury
M. JosephKnee Injury
J. RodonMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Brighton at 45% to win and Leeds at 27%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Brighton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Brighton Win	45%	49%	@ 1.92
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.45
Leeds Win	27%	23%	@ 4.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Brighton or Draw at 1.22 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Brighton or Draw	72%	77%	@ 1.22
Leeds or Draw	54%	51%	@ 1.87

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	74%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	69%	71%	@ 1.34
Over 2.5	53%	49%	@ 1.92
Under 2.5	47%	51%	@ 1.87
Over 3.5	31%	29%	@ 3.25
Under 1.5	23%	26%	@ 3.65

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	53%	@ 1.74
BTTS No	44%	47%	@ 2.00

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Brighton or Leeds is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Leeds +2	84%	86%	1.11
Leeds +1.75	81%	79%	1.20
Leeds +1.5	77%	74%	1.29
Brighton +0.75	76%	80%	1.18
Leeds +1.25	72%	71%	1.35
Brighton +0.5	72%	75%	1.28
Leeds +1	66%	67%	1.43
Brighton +0.25	65%	71%	1.34
Leeds +0.75	60%	58%	1.65
Brighton 0	59%	66%	1.45
Leeds +0.5	54%	52%	@ 1.88
Brighton -0.25	52%	56%	1.72
Leeds +0.25	48%	44%	@ 2.16
Brighton -0.5	46%	48%	2.01
Leeds 0	41%	34%	@ 2.77
Brighton -0.75	40%	42%	2.28
Leeds -0.25	35%	29%	@ 3.29
Brighton -1	34%	33%	2.87
Brighton -1.25	28%	29%	3.25
Leeds -0.5	28%	25%	@ 3.74
Leeds -0.75	24%	20%	@ 4.80
Brighton -1.5	23%	26%	3.65
Brighton -1.75	19%	21%	4.40
Brighton -2	16%	14%	@ 6.60

📈 How the market moved

Brighton 48%Draw 27%Leeds 25%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Brighton vs Leeds?

Our model's main pick is Leeds with a +1.5 start at odds 1.29, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Leeds?

Our model makes a Brighton win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline for Brighton vs Leeds.

What is the predicted score for Brighton vs Leeds?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.66 for Brighton and 1.15 for Leeds. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Brighton and Leeds play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.