⚽ Premier League

Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hull City vs Aston Villa in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Hull City face Aston Villa in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Aston Villa win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.7-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hull City vs Aston Villa with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.27

81%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.71 – 1.38 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.6%	6.3%	4.3%	2.0%	0.7%
1	7.8%	10.7%	7.4%	3.4%	1.2%
2	6.7%	9.2%	6.3%	2.9%	1.0%
3	3.8%	5.2%	3.6%	1.7%	0.6%
4	1.6%	2.2%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Hull City winDrawAston Villa win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Hull City vs Aston Villa is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates an Aston Villa win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.87 (+11.6% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.87, 60% model probability, +11.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Hull City 23%Draw 31%Aston Villa 46%

23%31%46%

46%

Aston Villa Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

+11.6%

Best value: Over 2.5

📈 Recent form

Hull City

Hull City come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Manchester United. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Eintracht Frankfurt.

WCoventry 0-1 Hull CityPremier League
DStoke City 1-1 Hull CityLeague Cup
WHull City 2-0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
DHull City 0-0 NiceFriendlies Clubs
LEintracht Frankfurt 2-0 Hull CityFriendlies Clubs

Aston Villa

Aston Villa come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.

LAston Villa 0-1 ArsenalPremier League
LBrighton 4-0 Aston VillaPremier League
LBorussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 Aston VillaFriendlies Clubs
LParis Saint Germain 2-1 Aston VillaUEFA Super Cup
LBayern München 2-1 Aston VillaFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Hull City

J. ButlandArm Injury
D. GyabiGroin Injury
C. HughesGroin Injury
E. MatazoKnee Injury
O. ZambranoHamstring Injury
I. AnsahBack Injury
M. CrooksMuscle Injury
J. GelhardtAnkle Injury

Aston Villa

Joao GomesSuspended (red card)
J. ManzambiKnee Injury
A. OnanaKnee Injury
B. MadjoAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Hull City at 23% to win and Aston Villa at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes an Aston Villa win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	31%	@ 3.60	+12.8%
Hull City Win	23%	@ 4.10	-7.0%
Aston Villa Win	46%	@ 1.89	-13.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Hull City or Draw at 1.90 (51% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Hull City or Draw	51%	@ 1.90	-3.2%
Aston Villa or Draw	74%	@ 1.23	-8.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	37%	@ 3.25	+21.2%
Over 2.5	60%	@ 1.87	+11.6%
Over 1.5	81%	@ 1.27	+3.4%
Under 3.5	63%	@ 1.33	-16.6%
Under 2.5	40%	@ 1.91	-23.0%
Under 1.5	19%	@ 3.70	-31.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	61%	@ 1.72	+5.3%
BTTS No	39%	@ 2.02	-21.7%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	45%
GradientBoosting	Away	51%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.07 for the home side, 1.57 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hull City vs Aston Villa?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.87 (+11.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Hull City vs Aston Villa?

Our model makes an Aston Villa win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline for Hull City vs Aston Villa.

What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Aston Villa?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Hull City and 1.38 for Aston Villa. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Hull City and Aston Villa play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.