AEK Athens FC

Sat 5 Sep5-0Finished

Aris Thessalonikis

⚽ Super League 1

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: AEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris Thessalonikis

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis finished 5-0. AEK Athens FC won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

AEK Athens FC face Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: AEK Athens FC have 2 wins from their last 5, while Aris Thessalonikis have 5 wins from their last 5. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.32

71%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.64 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	7.1%	3.8%	1.3%	0.4%
1	11.0%	11.7%	6.2%	2.2%	0.6%
2	9.0%	9.6%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.9%	5.2%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
4	2.0%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

AEK Athens FC winDrawAris Thessalonikis win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 71% model probability. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

51%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Aris Thessalonikis. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WVolos NFC 1-2 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
DAsteras Tripolis 1-1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
WAEK Athens FC 1-0 Lask LinzUEFA Champions League
WAEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
WNestos Chrisoupolis 0-2 AEK Athens FCCup

Aris Thessalonikis

Aris Thessalonikis come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Marko. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at PAOK.

DAris Thessalonikis 0-0 Iraklis 1908Super League 1
WAris Thessalonikis 1-0 MarkoCup
LPAOK 2-0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
DAsteras Tripolis 1-1 Aris ThessalonikisCup
LAEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AEK Athens FC or Draw at 1.07 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AEK Athens FC or Draw	76%	88%	@ 1.07
Aris Thessalonikis or Draw	49%	34%	@ 2.65

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	75%	@ 1.23
Under 3.5	71%	69%	@ 1.32
Over 2.5	51%	52%	@ 1.78
Under 2.5	49%	48%	@ 1.90
Over 3.5	29%	31%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	25%	25%	@ 3.65

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	45%	@ 2.02
BTTS No	47%	55%	@ 1.68

📈 How the market moved

AEK Athens FC 69%Draw 19%Aris Thessalonikis 12%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

What is the predicted score for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.64 for AEK Athens FC and 1.06 for Aris Thessalonikis. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.