⚽ Super League 1

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AEK Athens FC face Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: AEK Athens FC have 2 wins from their last 5, while Aris Thessalonikis have 5 wins from their last 5. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.32

71%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.64 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	7.1%	3.8%	1.3%	0.4%
1	11.0%	11.7%	6.2%	2.2%	0.6%
2	9.0%	9.6%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.9%	5.2%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
4	2.0%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

AEK Athens FC winDrawAris Thessalonikis win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.32, the selection our model is most confident in at 71%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

51%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 1. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Levski Sofia.

WNestos Chrisoupolis 0-2 AEK Athens FCCup
DKifisia 1-1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
WAEK Athens FC 4-0 Levski SofiaUEFA Champions League
WAEK Athens FC 4-0 Iraklis 1908Super League 1
DLevski Sofia 0-0 AEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League

Aris Thessalonikis

Aris Thessalonikis come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Anagennisi Karditsas. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-6 at Napoli.

WAris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFISuper League 1
WKalamata 2-3 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
WAnagennisi Karditsas 0-2 Aris ThessalonikisCup
LNapoli 6-2 Aris ThessalonikisFriendlies Clubs
WMonza 1-3 Aris ThessalonikisFriendlies Clubs

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AEK Athens FC or Draw at 1.07 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
AEK Athens FC or Draw	76%	@ 1.07	n/a
Aris Thessalonikis or Draw	49%	@ 2.65	n/a

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	75%	@ 1.23	n/a
Under 1.5	25%	@ 3.65	n/a
Over 2.5	51%	@ 1.78	n/a
Under 2.5	49%	@ 1.90	n/a
Over 3.5	29%	@ 3.00	n/a
Under 3.5	71%	@ 1.32	n/a

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 2.02	n/a
BTTS No	47%	@ 1.68	n/a

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	51%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.61 for the home side, 1.04 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.32, with 71% model confidence.

What is the predicted score for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.64 for AEK Athens FC and 1.06 for Aris Thessalonikis. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.