⚽ Segunda División

Las Palmas vs Leganes Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Las Palmas vs Leganes in the Segunda División. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Las Palmas face Leganes in the Segunda División, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:30 UTC. Recent form: Las Palmas have 2 wins from their last 5, while Leganes have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Las Palmas won 1, Leganes won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Las Palmas win the most likely result at 60%, projecting a 1.6-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Las Palmas vs Leganes with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

BTTS No @ 1.79

63%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.57 – 0.64 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.0%	7.0%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%
1	17.2%	11.0%	3.5%	0.8%	0.1%
2	13.5%	8.7%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%
3	7.1%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%
4	2.8%	1.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Las Palmas winDrawLeganes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Las Palmas vs Leganes is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is both teams not to score at odds 1.79, the selection our model is most confident in at 63%. On the match result, the model rates a Las Palmas win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 60%. Goals lean under 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points no (63%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Las Palmas win at odds 1.96 (+17.3% model value).

Best value

Las Palmas Win at odds 1.96, 60% model probability, +17.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Las Palmas 60%Draw 25%Leganes 15%

60%25%15%

60%

Las Palmas Win

62%

Under 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS no

+17.3%

Best value: Las Palmas Win

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Las Palmas and Leganes. Wins shown from Las Palmas’s perspective: Las Palmas 1 · Leganes 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-17	Las Palmas	2 – 0	Leganes	W
2025-05-18	Las Palmas	0 – 1	Leganes	L
2024-08-25	Leganes	2 – 1	Las Palmas	L

📈 Recent form

Las Palmas

Las Palmas come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at AD Ceuta FC. Their most recent defeat was 2-5 at Girona.

LGirona 5-2 Las PalmasSegunda División
WAD Ceuta FC 0-2 Las PalmasSegunda División
WLas Palmas 2-1 AlbaceteSegunda División
LLas Palmas 0-1 NEOMFriendlies Clubs
LLas Palmas 1-2 Al-Ittihad FCFriendlies Clubs

Leganes

Leganes come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Mérida AD. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WLeganes 1-0 EldenseSegunda División
WOviedo 0-1 LeganesSegunda División
DGirona 1-1 LeganesSegunda División
WLeganes 3-0 Mérida ADFriendlies Clubs
WLeganes 2-1 Al-Rayyan SCFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Las Palmas at 60% to win and Leganes at 15%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Las Palmas win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Las Palmas Win	60%	@ 1.96	+17.3%
Draw	25%	@ 3.20	-19.2%
Leganes Win	15%	@ 3.55	-47.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Las Palmas or Draw at 1.23 (83% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Las Palmas or Draw	83%	@ 1.23	+2.4%
Leganes or Draw	38%	@ 1.71	-34.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	35%	@ 3.00	+5.6%
Under 2.5	62%	@ 1.64	+1.7%
Under 3.5	82%	@ 1.21	-1.1%
Over 1.5	65%	@ 1.33	-13.8%
Over 2.5	38%	@ 2.10	-20.2%
Over 3.5	18%	@ 3.85	-29.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	63%	@ 1.79	+12.1%
BTTS Yes	37%	@ 1.85	-30.9%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	60%
Dixon-Coles	Home	60%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.91 for the home side, 0.88 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Las Palmas vs Leganes?

Our main pick is both teams not to score at odds 1.79, with 63% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Las Palmas win at 1.96 (+17.3% value).

Who is the favourite for Las Palmas vs Leganes?

Our model makes a Las Palmas win the most likely result at 60%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.6 scoreline for Las Palmas vs Leganes.

What is the predicted score for Las Palmas vs Leganes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.57 for Las Palmas and 0.64 for Leganes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Las Palmas and Leganes play?

Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.