vs
⚽ Championship
Stoke City vs Charlton Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Stoke City vs Charlton in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Result: Stoke City 4-0 Charlton
Stoke City vs Charlton finished 4-0. Stoke City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Stoke City face Charlton in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Stoke City have 0 wins from their last 3, while Charlton have 3 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Charlton win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.3-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Stoke City vs Charlton with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Stoke City vs Charlton is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Charlton with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a Charlton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (58%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Charlton 0 at odds 2.56 (+39.2% model value).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Stoke City come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Charlton. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Wolves.
- WStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship
- WStoke City 1-0 NorwichChampionship
- LWolves 4-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- DStoke City 1-1 Hull CityLeague Cup
- LSouthampton 3-1 Stoke CityChampionship
Charlton come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Preston. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Stoke City.
- LStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship
- DWest Brom 1-1 CharltonChampionship
- WCharlton 1-0 PrestonChampionship
- LTottenham 5-1 CharltonLeague Cup
- WWest Ham 1-2 CharltonChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 15 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. CresswellKnee Injury
- B. GibsonHead Injury
- A. AmpahHamstring Injury
- L. CisseKnock
- S. IngelssonInjury
- D. SoumareInjury
- J. TchamadeuKnee Injury
- N. ChalobahMuscle Injury
- M. GoddenMuscle Injury
- W. MannionShoulder Injury
- K. RamsayAnkle Injury
- C. SichenjeKnee Injury
- J. EdwardsAnkle Injury
- C. KelmanShoulder Injury
- B. KoumetioMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Stoke City at 33% to win and Charlton at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Charlton win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Win | 42% | @ 3.60 | +50.5% |
| Draw | 25% | @ 3.25 | -17.7% |
| Stoke City Win | 33% | @ 2.05 | -32.6% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Charlton or Draw at 1.73 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton or Draw | 68% | @ 1.73 | +16.9% |
| Stoke City or Draw | 59% | @ 1.27 | -25.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 33% | @ 3.95 | +30.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | @ 2.12 | +17.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | @ 1.34 | +5.2% |
| Under 3.5 | 67% | @ 1.22 | -18.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | @ 1.67 | -25.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | @ 3.00 | -35.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 58% | @ 1.88 | +9.5% |
| BTTS No | 42% | @ 1.83 | -23.6% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Stoke City or Charlton is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton -1 | 30% | @ 7.00 | +112.8% |
| Charlton -0.75 | 36% | @ 4.59 | +64.9% |
| Charlton -0.25 | 48% | @ 3.06 | +46.8% |
| Charlton -0.5 | 41% | @ 3.54 | +46.2% |
| Charlton 0 | 54% | @ 2.56 | +39.2% |
| Charlton +0.25 | 61% | @ 2.03 | +23.9% |
| Charlton +0.5 | 68% | @ 1.74 | +17.3% |
| Charlton +0.75 | 72% | @ 1.53 | +11.0% |
| Charlton +1.5 | 86% | @ 1.23 | +6.4% |
| Charlton +1.25 | 82% | @ 1.27 | +4.3% |
| Charlton +1 | 77% | @ 1.33 | +2.5% |
| Charlton +1.75 | 89% | @ 1.15 | +2.1% |
| Stoke City +0.75 | 64% | 1.21 | -22.7% |
| Stoke City -1 | 23% | 3.37 | -22.8% |
| Stoke City +0.5 | 59% | 1.31 | -23.2% |
| Stoke City +1 | 70% | 1.10 | -23.4% |
| Stoke City +0.25 | 52% | 1.39 | -27.6% |
| Stoke City -0.25 | 39% | 1.84 | -28.1% |
| Stoke City 0 | 46% | 1.52 | -30.6% |
| Stoke City -0.75 | 28% | 2.50 | -30.7% |
| Stoke City -0.5 | 32% | 2.13 | -31.0% |
| Stoke City -1.25 | 18% | 3.73 | -31.9% |
| Stoke City -1.75 | 11% | 5.50 | -38.2% |
| Stoke City -1.5 | 14% | 4.00 | -46.0% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Stoke City vs Charlton?
Our main pick is Charlton with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with 82% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Charlton 0 at 2.56 (+39.2% value).
Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Charlton?
Our model makes a Charlton win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline for Stoke City vs Charlton.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Charlton?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.34 for Stoke City and 1.56 for Charlton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Stoke City and Charlton play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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