Sat 5 Sep4-0Finished

⚽ Championship

Millwall vs Bolton Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Millwall vs Bolton in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Millwall 4-0 Bolton

Millwall vs Bolton finished 4-0. Millwall won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Millwall face Bolton in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Millwall have 2 wins from their last 3, while Bolton have 1 win from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Millwall win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Millwall vs Bolton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Bolton +1.5 @ 1.29

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.21 – 1.05 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.4%	11.0%	5.8%	2.0%	0.5%
1	12.6%	13.3%	7.0%	2.4%	0.6%
2	7.6%	8.0%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%
3	3.1%	3.2%	1.7%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-1

Millwall winDrawBolton win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Millwall vs Bolton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Bolton with a +1.5 start at odds 1.29, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Millwall win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean under 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Millwall 46%Draw 28%Bolton 26%

46%28%26%

46%

Millwall Win

61%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Millwall

Millwall come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Bolton. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Blackburn.

DMillwall 2-2 West HamChampionship
DMiddlesbrough 2-2 MillwallChampionship
LBlackburn 3-1 MillwallChampionship
LMillwall 0-1 NewcastleLeague Cup
WMillwall 4-0 BoltonChampionship

Bolton

Bolton come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 4-3 at Norwich. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to West Ham.

WNorwich 3-4 BoltonChampionship
WBolton 1-0 CardiffChampionship
LBolton 2-3 West HamChampionship
LMillwall 4-0 BoltonChampionship
LSheffield Utd 3-2 BoltonChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Millwall

J. CoburnMuscle Injury
T. CramaNot in squad
L. CundleNot in squad
C. De NorreInjury
A. DoughtyHamstring Injury
M. IvanovicHamstring Injury
L. JensenNot in squad
R. LeonardHamstring Injury

Bolton

L. StephensonInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Millwall at 46% to win and Bolton at 26%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Millwall win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Millwall Win	46%	51%	@ 1.84
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.40
Bolton Win	26%	22%	@ 4.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Millwall or Draw at 1.20 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Millwall or Draw	73%	78%	@ 1.20
Bolton or Draw	53%	49%	@ 1.92

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	81%	77%	@ 1.21
Over 1.5	66%	68%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	61%	57%	@ 1.65
Over 2.5	39%	43%	@ 2.16
Under 1.5	34%	32%	@ 2.95
Over 3.5	19%	23%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS Yes	46%	47%	@ 1.97

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Millwall or Bolton is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bolton +2	83%	86%	1.10
Bolton +1.75	80%	–	1.23
Millwall +0.75	77%	81%	1.17
Bolton +1.5	76%	74%	1.29
Millwall +0.5	73%	76%	1.25
Bolton +1.25	70%	71%	1.34
Millwall +0.25	66%	72%	1.32
Bolton +1	65%	66%	1.44
Millwall 0	60%	67%	1.42
Bolton +0.75	59%	58%	1.64
Millwall -0.25	53%	56%	1.70
Bolton +0.5	53%	52%	1.86
Millwall -0.5	47%	48%	2.00
Bolton +0.25	47%	44%	@ 2.18
Millwall -0.75	41%	42%	2.28
Bolton 0	40%	33%	@ 2.91
Millwall -1	35%	34%	2.81
Bolton -0.25	34%	28%	@ 3.42
Millwall -1.25	30%	29%	3.27
Bolton -0.5	27%	24%	@ 3.94
Millwall -1.5	24%	26%	3.58
Bolton -0.75	23%	19%	@ 5.00
Millwall -2	17%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Millwall 48%Draw 28%Bolton 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Millwall vs Bolton?

Our model's main pick is Bolton with a +1.5 start at odds 1.29, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Millwall vs Bolton?

Our model makes a Millwall win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline for Millwall vs Bolton.

What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Bolton?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.21 for Millwall and 1.05 for Bolton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Millwall and Bolton play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.