Sat 5 Sep2-2Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Estrela da Amadora vs Famalicão Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estrela da Amadora vs Famalicão in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Estrela da Amadora 2-2 Famalicão

Estrela da Amadora vs Famalicão finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Estrela da Amadora face Famalicão in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Estrela da Amadora have 1 win from their last 3, while Famalicão have no wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Estrela da Amadora won 1, Famalicão won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.0-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estrela da Amadora vs Famalicão with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Famalicão +0.75 @ 1.29

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.04 – 1.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	12.4%	8.3%	3.8%	1.3%
1	9.5%	12.9%	8.7%	3.9%	1.3%
2	5.0%	6.7%	4.5%	2.0%	0.7%
3	1.7%	2.3%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Estrela da Amadora winDrawFamalicão win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Estrela da Amadora vs Famalicão comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Famalicão with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Famalicão win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Estrela da Amadora 24%Draw 28%Famalicão 48%

24%28%48%

48%

Famalicão Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Estrela da Amadora and Famalicão. Wins shown from Estrela da Amadora’s perspective: Estrela da Amadora 1 · 3 drawn · Famalicão 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-05	Estrela da Amadora	2 – 2	Famalicão	D
2026-05-11	Estrela da Amadora	0 – 0	Famalicão	D
2025-12-27	Famalicão	2 – 3	Estrela da Amadora	W
2025-01-25	Famalicão	0 – 0	Estrela da Amadora	D
2024-08-19	Estrela da Amadora	0 – 3	Famalicão	L

📈 Recent form

Estrela da Amadora

Estrela da Amadora come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to SC Braga. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Académico de Viseu.

LEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
DRio Ave 3-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
WEstrela da Amadora 2-1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
WNacional 2-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga

Famalicão

Famalicão come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Nacional. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Santa Clara.

WNacional 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 1-1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 0-0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
LSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Estrela da Amadora at 24% to win and Famalicão at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão Win	48%	41%	@ 2.30
Draw	28%	30%	@ 3.15
Estrela da Amadora Win	24%	30%	@ 3.15

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Famalicão or Draw at 1.30 (75% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão or Draw	75%	70%	@ 1.30
Estrela da Amadora or Draw	50%	59%	@ 1.54

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	78%	@ 1.18
Over 1.5	69%	68%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	57%	58%	@ 1.58
Over 2.5	43%	42%	@ 2.18
Under 1.5	31%	32%	@ 2.85
Over 3.5	22%	22%	@ 4.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	53%	51%	@ 1.79
BTTS Yes	47%	49%	@ 1.88

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Estrela da Amadora or Famalicão is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão +1.5	90%	85%	@ 1.12
Famalicão +1.25	86%	83%	1.14
Famalicão +1	82%	–	1.16
Famalicão +0.75	79%	74%	@ 1.29
Estrela da Amadora +1.75	78%	86%	1.10
Famalicão +0.5	75%	67%	@ 1.43
Estrela da Amadora +1.5	74%	83%	1.15
Famalicão +0.25	68%	61%	@ 1.56
Estrela da Amadora +1.25	68%	80%	1.19
Estrela da Amadora +1	62%	78%	1.22
Famalicão 0	62%	53%	@ 1.81
Estrela da Amadora +0.75	56%	69%	1.38
Famalicão -0.25	56%	44%	@ 2.19
Estrela da Amadora +0.5	50%	62%	1.52
Famalicão -0.5	50%	38%	@ 2.52
Estrela da Amadora +0.25	44%	56%	1.69
Famalicão -0.75	44%	31%	@ 3.12
Estrela da Amadora 0	38%	47%	2.06
Famalicão -1	38%	22%	@ 4.41
Estrela da Amadora -0.25	32%	39%	2.44
Famalicão -1.25	32%	20%	@ 4.68
Famalicão -1.5	26%	17%	@ 5.50
Estrela da Amadora -0.5	25%	33%	2.85
Famalicão -1.75	22%	14%	@ 7.00
Estrela da Amadora -0.75	21%	26%	3.60
Estrela da Amadora -1.25	14%	17%	5.75
Estrela da Amadora -1.5	10%	15%	6.25

📈 How the market moved

Estrela da Amadora 33%Draw 30%Famalicão 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora vs Famalicão?

Our model's main pick is Famalicão with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Estrela da Amadora vs Famalicão?

Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.4 scoreline for Estrela da Amadora vs Famalicão.

What is the predicted score for Estrela da Amadora vs Famalicão?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.04 for Estrela da Amadora and 1.35 for Famalicão. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Estrela da Amadora and Famalicão play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.