⚽ Primeira Liga

Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Maritimo vs Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Maritimo face Benfica in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 65%, projecting a 1.1-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Maritimo vs Benfica with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.52

66%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.15 – 1.78 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	9.5%	8.5%	5.0%	2.2%
1	6.1%	10.9%	9.7%	5.8%	2.6%
2	3.5%	6.3%	5.6%	3.3%	1.5%
3	1.4%	2.4%	2.1%	1.3%	0.6%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Maritimo winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Maritimo vs Benfica is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.52, the selection our model is most confident in at 66%. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 65%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (57%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 1.93 (+9.7% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 1.93, 57% model probability, +9.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Maritimo 15%Draw 20%Benfica 65%

15%20%65%

65%

Benfica Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

+9.7%

Best value: BTTS Yes

📈 Recent form

Maritimo

Maritimo come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Famalicao. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Arouca.

LArouca 2-1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
DMaritimo 2-2 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
WFamalicao 1-2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
WMaritimo 1-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
DMaritimo 1-1 EstrelaFriendlies Clubs

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at Casa Pia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WBenfica 2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
WAarhus 1-3 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 AarhusUEFA Europa League
WCasa Pia 0-7 BenficaPrimeira Liga
DHeart Of Midlothian 1-1 BenficaUEFA Europa League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Maritimo at 15% to win and Benfica at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Maritimo Win	15%	@ 10.50	+58.2%
Draw	20%	@ 5.50	+9.2%
Benfica Win	65%	@ 1.27	-17.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Maritimo or Draw at 3.35 (35% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Maritimo or Draw	35%	@ 3.35	+18.1%
Benfica or Draw	85%	@ 1.04	-11.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	44%	@ 2.33	+2.3%
Under 3.5	66%	@ 1.52	+0.8%
Under 1.5	21%	@ 4.75	-0.3%
Over 1.5	79%	@ 1.14	-9.9%
Over 2.5	56%	@ 1.52	-14.7%
Over 3.5	34%	@ 2.30	-22.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	57%	@ 1.93	+9.7%
BTTS No	43%	@ 1.74	-24.9%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	52%
GradientBoosting	Away	69%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 0.84 for the home side, 2.01 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Maritimo vs Benfica?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.52, with 66% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 1.93 (+9.7% value).

Who is the favourite for Maritimo vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 65%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.8 scoreline for Maritimo vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for Maritimo vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Maritimo and 1.78 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Maritimo and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.