Sun 6 Sep0-0Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Vitória SC face Casa Pia in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Vitória SC have 1 win from their last 4, while Casa Pia have no wins from their last 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vitória SC win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.7-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.27

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.69 – 1.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	6.7%	3.9%	1.5%	0.4%
1	9.9%	11.4%	6.5%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.6%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.7%	5.4%	3.1%	1.2%	0.3%
4	2.0%	2.3%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vitória SC winDrawCasa Pia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Vitória SC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Vitória SC 47%Draw 36%Casa Pia 17%

47%36%17%

47%

Vitória SC Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Vitória SC

Vitória SC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Nacional. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Académico de Viseu.

DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LAcadémico de Viseu 2-1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LSC Braga 1-0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
WVitória SC 1-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Estoril. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to FC Porto.

WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitória SC at 47% to win and Casa Pia at 17%, with the draw at 36%. Our model makes a Vitória SC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória SC Win	47%	58%	@ 1.61
Draw	36%	25%	@ 3.80
Casa Pia Win	17%	17%	@ 5.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vitória SC or Draw at 1.11 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória SC or Draw	77%	83%	@ 1.11
Casa Pia or Draw	48%	42%	@ 2.17

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	73%	@ 1.27
Under 3.5	68%	72%	@ 1.27
Over 2.5	54%	48%	@ 1.90
Under 2.5	46%	52%	@ 1.78
Over 3.5	32%	28%	@ 3.30
Under 1.5	22%	27%	@ 3.35

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	48%	@ 1.92
BTTS No	44%	52%	@ 1.76

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vitória SC or Casa Pia is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Casa Pia +2	80%	–	1.23
Vitória SC +0.5	77%	85%	1.12
Casa Pia +1.75	76%	69%	@ 1.38
Casa Pia +1.5	72%	62%	@ 1.52
Vitória SC +0.25	71%	83%	1.14
Casa Pia +1.25	66%	57%	@ 1.67
Vitória SC 0	64%	81%	1.18
Casa Pia +1	60%	50%	@ 1.94
Vitória SC -0.25	58%	71%	1.34
Casa Pia +0.75	54%	42%	@ 2.25
Vitória SC -0.5	52%	63%	1.51
Casa Pia +0.5	48%	37%	@ 2.54
Vitória SC -0.75	46%	58%	1.66
Casa Pia +0.25	42%	29%	@ 3.25
Vitória SC -1	40%	50%	1.93
Casa Pia 0	36%	19%	@ 5.16
Vitória SC -1.25	34%	43%	2.23
Casa Pia -0.25	29%	17%	@ 5.75
Vitória SC -1.5	28%	38%	2.52
Vitória SC -1.75	24%	31%	3.10
Casa Pia -0.5	23%	15%	@ 6.40

📈 How the market moved

Vitória SC 62%Draw 24%Casa Pia 14%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

Our model makes a Vitória SC win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia.

What is the predicted score for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.69 for Vitória SC and 1.15 for Casa Pia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitória SC and Casa Pia play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.