⚽ Championship

West Ham vs Derby Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for West Ham vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

West Ham face Derby in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: West Ham have 0 wins from their last 3, while Derby have 0 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a West Ham win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for West Ham vs Derby with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.42

70%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.65 – 1.11 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	7.0%	3.9%	1.4%	0.4%
1	10.4%	11.6%	6.4%	2.4%	0.7%
2	8.6%	9.6%	5.3%	2.0%	0.5%
3	4.7%	5.3%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.0%	2.2%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

West Ham winDrawDerby win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for West Ham vs Derby is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 70%. On the match result, the model rates a West Ham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 2.04 (+10.7% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 2.04, 54% model probability, +10.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

West Ham 44%Draw 26%Derby 30%

44%26%30%

44%

West Ham Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

+10.7%

Best value: BTTS Yes

📈 Recent form

West Ham

West Ham come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Southampton. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Charlton.

WWest Ham 4-2 WolvesChampionship
DWatford 1-1 West HamChampionship
WSouthampton 1-4 West HamLeague Cup
LWest Ham 1-2 CharltonChampionship
DBurnley 2-2 West HamChampionship

Derby

Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Swansea.

WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 0-3 SwanseaChampionship
DDerby 2-2 CardiffChampionship
LCharlton 2-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 1-2 LincolnLeague Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

West Ham

T. SoucekAnkle Injury

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
C. MorrisNot in squad
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
L. TravisInjury
M. ClarkeCalf Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices West Ham at 44% to win and Derby at 30%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a West Ham win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Derby Win	30%	@ 9.00	+173.8%
Draw	26%	@ 5.10	+30.4%
West Ham Win	44%	@ 1.32	-41.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derby or Draw at 3.25 (56% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Derby or Draw	56%	@ 3.25	+82.7%
West Ham or Draw	70%	@ 1.05	-26.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	48%	@ 2.12	+1.6%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 4.20	+-0.0%
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.42	-0.5%
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.20	-8.6%
Over 2.5	52%	@ 1.68	-12.5%
Over 3.5	30%	@ 2.70	-19.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	54%	@ 2.04	+10.7%
BTTS No	46%	@ 1.70	-22.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	50%
GradientBoosting	Home	42%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.45 for the home side, 1.16 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for West Ham vs Derby?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 70% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 2.04 (+10.7% value).

Who is the favourite for West Ham vs Derby?

Our model makes a West Ham win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for West Ham vs Derby.

What is the predicted score for West Ham vs Derby?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.65 for West Ham and 1.11 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do West Ham and Derby play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.