vs
⚽ Primeira Liga
Moreirense vs Benfica Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Moreirense vs Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Result: Moreirense 0-4 Benfica
Moreirense vs Benfica finished 0-4. Benfica won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Moreirense face Benfica in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Moreirense have 1 win from their last 3, while Benfica have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Benfica won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 71%, projecting a 0.9-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Moreirense vs Benfica with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 4.4% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% |
| 2 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Moreirense vs Benfica is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Moreirense with a +2 start at odds 1.96, the selection our model is most confident in at 64%. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 71%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (50%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Moreirense with a +1.5 start at odds 2.44 (+31.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Moreirense and Benfica. Wins shown from Moreirense’s perspective: 1 drawn · Benfica 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Moreirense | 0 – 4 | Benfica | L |
| 2026-04-25 | Benfica | 4 – 1 | Moreirense | L |
| 2025-12-14 | Moreirense | 0 – 4 | Benfica | L |
| 2025-02-08 | Benfica | 3 – 2 | Moreirense | L |
| 2024-08-30 | Moreirense | 1 – 1 | Benfica | D |
📈 Recent form
Moreirense come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Casa Pia. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Benfica.
- LMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- LFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- WCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- LArouca 4-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- DMoreirense 2-2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
Benfica come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- WMaritimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- WBenfica 2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- WAarhus 1-3 BenficaUEFA Europa League
- WBenfica 3-1 AarhusUEFA Europa League
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Moreirense at 12% to win and Benfica at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense Win | 12% | @ 15.00 | +87.5% |
| Draw | 16% | @ 7.00 | +15.5% |
| Benfica Win | 71% | @ 1.17 | -16.9% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Moreirense or Draw at 4.00 (30% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense or Draw | 30% | @ 4.00 | +19.6% |
| Benfica or Draw | 88% | @ 1.01 | -10.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 19% | @ 6.00 | +16.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | @ 2.75 | +14.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 64% | @ 1.71 | +9.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | @ 1.09 | -12.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | @ 1.38 | -19.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | @ 1.98 | -28.4% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 50% | @ 2.00 | +0.0% |
| BTTS No | 50% | @ 1.68 | -16.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Moreirense or Benfica is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense +1 | 42% | @ 4.02 | +68.4% |
| Moreirense +0.25 | 25% | @ 6.60 | +67.1% |
| Moreirense +0.75 | 36% | @ 4.40 | +57.9% |
| Moreirense +0.5 | 30% | @ 5.00 | +49.4% |
| Moreirense +1.25 | 48% | @ 3.00 | +43.6% |
| Moreirense +1.5 | 54% | @ 2.44 | +31.6% |
| Moreirense +1.75 | 59% | @ 2.19 | +29.6% |
| Moreirense +2 | 64% | @ 1.96 | +26.1% |
| Benfica -0.25 | 75% | 1.11 | -17.1% |
| Benfica -0.5 | 70% | 1.17 | -18.0% |
| Benfica -0.75 | 64% | 1.20 | -23.1% |
| Benfica -1 | 58% | 1.21 | -29.7% |
| Benfica -1.25 | 52% | 1.34 | -29.9% |
| Benfica -1.5 | 46% | 1.49 | -31.4% |
| Benfica -1.75 | 41% | 1.61 | -34.2% |
| Benfica -2 | 36% | 1.82 | -35.2% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our main pick is Moreirense with a +2 start at odds 1.96, with 64% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Moreirense with a +1.5 start at 2.44 (+31.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 71%. It projects an expected 0.9-2.2 scoreline for Moreirense vs Benfica.
What is the predicted score for Moreirense vs Benfica?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-2, based on expected goals of 0.87 for Moreirense and 2.17 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Moreirense and Benfica play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 09 September 2026, 19:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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