Karpaty

Sat 5 Sep1-2Finished

Shakhtar Donetsk

⚽ Premier League

Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Karpaty 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk

Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk finished 1-2. Shakhtar Donetsk won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Karpaty face Shakhtar Donetsk in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 15:00 UTC. Recent form: Karpaty have 3 wins from their last 5, while Shakhtar Donetsk have 3 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Karpaty win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.25 – 1.09 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.6%	10.5%	5.7%	2.1%	0.6%
1	12.0%	13.1%	7.2%	2.6%	0.7%
2	7.5%	8.2%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.1%	3.4%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.0%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Karpaty winDrawShakhtar Donetsk win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Karpaty win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Karpaty 39%Draw 30%Shakhtar Donetsk 31%

39%30%31%

39%

Karpaty Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Karpaty

Karpaty come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Kolos Kovalivka. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Shakhtar Donetsk.

DKarpaty 1-1 Veres RivnePremier League
WKolos Kovalivka 0-2 KarpatyPremier League
LKarpaty 1-2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
DLivyi Bereh 1-1 KarpatyPremier League
WKarpaty 2-0 Obolon'-BrovarCup

Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to LNZ Cherkasy. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Polessya.

WShakhtar Donetsk 3-0 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
WShakhtar Donetsk 2-0 ChornomoretsPremier League
DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
WKarpaty 1-2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
LShakhtar Donetsk 0-2 PolessyaPremier League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Karpaty at 39% to win and Shakhtar Donetsk at 31%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Karpaty win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Karpaty Win	39%	20%	@ 4.50
Shakhtar Donetsk Win	31%	54%	@ 1.67
Draw	30%	26%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Karpaty or Draw at 1.91 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Karpaty or Draw	67%	46%	@ 1.91
Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw	59%	80%	@ 1.17

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	69%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	68%	75%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	58%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	42%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 1.5	32%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	21%	31%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	49%	@ 1.91
BTTS Yes	48%	51%	@ 1.80

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Our model makes a Karpaty win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline for Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk.

What is the predicted score for Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.25 for Karpaty and 1.09 for Shakhtar Donetsk. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Karpaty and Shakhtar Donetsk play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 15:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.