vs
⚽ UEFA Champions League
Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Thursday 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC.
Result: Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS Roma
Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at 1.30, landed.
Fenerbahçe face AS Roma in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Thursday 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.8-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 12.5% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11.3% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 6.8% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 87%. On the match result, the model rates a Fenerbahçe win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points no (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Fenerbahçe to win by 0+ goals at odds 2.92 (+62.7% model value).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Fenerbahçe come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Samsunspor. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Beşiktaş.
- DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
- LFenerbahçe 1-2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- WSamsunspor 0-2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- WLyon 1-2 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
- WFenerbahçe 4-2 KonyasporSüper Lig
AS Roma come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Lecce. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
- WAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A
- WLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A
- WAS Roma 4-0 FiorentinaSerie A
- DBorussia Dortmund 2-2 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. AsensioMuscle Injury
- A. DioufOff the roster
- A. FallOff the roster
- M. GuendouziSuspended (red card)
- J. OosterwoldeAchilles Tendon Injury
- Rodrigo BecaoOff the roster
- M. YandasOff the roster
- M. BahKnee Injury
- L. PellegriniThigh Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Fenerbahçe at 42% to win and AS Roma at 18%, with the draw at 39%. Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe Win | 42% | @ 3.30 | +40.1% |
| Draw | 39% | @ 3.45 | +35.6% |
| AS Roma Win | 18% | @ 2.18 | -60.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fenerbahçe or Draw at 1.67 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe or Draw | 75% | @ 1.67 | +24.6% |
| AS Roma or Draw | 50% | @ 1.32 | -33.4% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 25% | @ 4.40 | +11.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | @ 2.10 | +5.2% |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | @ 1.44 | +3.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | @ 1.21 | -9.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | @ 1.72 | -14.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | @ 2.80 | -21.8% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 52% | @ 2.33 | +20.4% |
| BTTS Yes | 48% | @ 1.58 | -23.7% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fenerbahçe or AS Roma is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe -1.25 | 32% | @ 6.40 | +103.0% |
| Fenerbahçe -0.75 | 44% | @ 4.16 | +81.4% |
| Fenerbahçe -0.25 | 56% | @ 2.92 | +62.7% |
| Fenerbahçe -1.75 | 22% | @ 7.00 | +54.0% |
| Fenerbahçe 0 | 62% | @ 2.38 | +48.0% |
| Fenerbahçe +0.25 | 68% | @ 2.02 | +38.1% |
| Fenerbahçe +0.5 | 75% | @ 1.70 | +26.9% |
| Fenerbahçe +0.75 | 79% | @ 1.54 | +21.4% |
| Fenerbahçe +1.25 | 86% | @ 1.30 | +12.5% |
| Fenerbahçe +1 | 83% | @ 1.36 | +12.3% |
| Fenerbahçe +1.5 | 90% | @ 1.24 | +11.8% |
| Fenerbahçe +1.75 | 92% | @ 1.17 | +7.9% |
| AS Roma +1.75 | 78% | 1.10 | -14.2% |
| AS Roma +1.5 | 74% | 1.09 | -19.1% |
| AS Roma +1.25 | 68% | 1.12 | -23.5% |
| AS Roma +1 | 62% | 1.16 | -27.7% |
| AS Roma +0.75 | 56% | 1.24 | -30.4% |
| AS Roma +0.5 | 50% | 1.37 | -30.9% |
| AS Roma +0.25 | 44% | 1.42 | -37.5% |
| AS Roma 0 | 38% | 1.57 | -40.4% |
| AS Roma -0.25 | 32% | 1.86 | -41.1% |
| AS Roma -1 | 17% | 3.17 | -44.6% |
| AS Roma -0.5 | 25% | 2.12 | -46.2% |
| AS Roma -0.75 | 21% | 2.47 | -47.1% |
| AS Roma -1.25 | 14% | 3.58 | -51.8% |
| AS Roma -1.75 | 8% | 5.00 | -60.9% |
| AS Roma -1.5 | 10% | 3.80 | -63.9% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
Our main pick is Fenerbahçe Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.30, with 87% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Fenerbahçe to win by 0+ goals at 2.92 (+62.7% value).
Who is the favourite for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.8-0.9 scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma.
What is the predicted score for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.81 for Fenerbahçe and 0.86 for AS Roma. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Fenerbahçe and AS Roma play?
Kick-off is Thursday 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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