vs
⚽ UEFA Champions League
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Thursday 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC.
Result: PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 2.5 goals at 1.52, did not land.
PSV Eindhoven face Shakhtar Donetsk in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Thursday 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, PSV Eindhoven won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 3.0-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.52, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (81%), both teams to score points yes (69%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 3.5 goals at odds 2.20 (+39.2% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk. Wins shown from PSV Eindhoven’s perspective: PSV Eindhoven 1 · 1 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 – 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | D |
| 2024-11-27 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 – 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | W |
📈 Recent form
PSV Eindhoven come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Utrecht. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- WAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WPSV Eindhoven 5-1 GroningenEredivisie
- WExcelsior 1-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Polessya.
- DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- WKarpaty 1-2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- LShakhtar Donetsk 0-2 PolessyaPremier League
- WFC Kharkiv 0-1 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- WEpitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 16 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. Bro HansenInjury
- S. LammersLacking Match Fitness
- Mauro JuniorSuspended (red card)
- A. NagaloOff the roster
- S. OuaissaMuscle Injury
- A. PleaInjury
- J. SchoutenKnee Injury
- K. SildilliaInjury
- K. FesyunIllness
- V. KorniyenkoOff the roster
- MarlonMuscle Injury
- P. ObahOff the roster
- PedrinhoInjury
- T. PuzankovOff the roster
- M. ShvedOff the roster
- D. TvardovskyiOff the roster
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices PSV Eindhoven at 54% to win and Shakhtar Donetsk at 22%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk Win | 22% | @ 6.75 | +45.1% |
| Draw | 25% | @ 4.90 | +21.6% |
| PSV Eindhoven Win | 54% | @ 1.44 | -22.7% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw at 2.75 (46% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw | 46% | @ 2.75 | +26.4% |
| PSV Eindhoven or Draw | 78% | @ 1.10 | -14.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.0-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 81% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 63% | @ 2.20 | +39.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 81% | @ 1.48 | +19.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | @ 1.13 | +5.1% |
| Under 3.5 | 37% | @ 1.68 | -38.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | @ 2.65 | -49.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 7% | @ 5.75 | -60.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 69%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 69% | @ 1.63 | +12.1% |
| BTTS No | 31% | @ 2.20 | -31.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when PSV Eindhoven or Shakhtar Donetsk is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk 0 | 34% | @ 4.80 | +62.9% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk -0.25 | 28% | @ 5.50 | +53.6% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +0.25 | 40% | @ 3.53 | +41.0% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +0.75 | 52% | @ 2.50 | +30.4% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1 | 58% | @ 2.23 | +29.5% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +0.5 | 46% | @ 2.80 | +28.5% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk -0.5 | 22% | @ 5.83 | +27.7% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1.25 | 64% | @ 1.94 | +24.3% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1.5 | 70% | @ 1.71 | +20.3% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1.75 | 74% | @ 1.57 | +17.0% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +2 | 79% | @ 1.40 | +10.1% |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.5 | 78% | 1.11 | -13.0% |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.25 | 72% | 1.15 | -17.1% |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.25 | 60% | 1.30 | -21.6% |
| PSV Eindhoven 0 | 66% | 1.18 | -22.0% |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.5 | 54% | 1.42 | -23.2% |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.75 | 48% | 1.53 | -26.6% |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.25 | 36% | 1.94 | -30.7% |
| PSV Eindhoven -1 | 42% | 1.65 | -30.9% |
| PSV Eindhoven -2 | 21% | 3.00 | -36.0% |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.5 | 30% | 2.10 | -37.8% |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.75 | 26% | 2.42 | -38.2% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.52, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 3.5 goals at 2.20 (+39.2% value).
Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 3.0-1.4 scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk.
What is the predicted score for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.97 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.39 for Shakhtar Donetsk. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk play?
Kick-off is Thursday 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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