vs
⚽ Championship
Wrexham vs Burnley Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Wrexham vs Burnley in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 08 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Wrexham 1-1 Burnley
Wrexham vs Burnley finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Burnley Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at 1.33, landed.
Wrexham face Burnley in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Tuesday 08 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Wrexham have 1 win from their last 4, while Burnley have 0 wins from their last 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.3-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Wrexham vs Burnley with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Wrexham vs Burnley is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Burnley Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 86%. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Burnley 0 at odds 2.55 (+55.9% model value).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Wrexham come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Millwall. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.
- DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
- DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
- WMillwall 0-3 WrexhamChampionship
- LWrexham 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
- DWrexham 1-1 WatfordChampionship
Burnley come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bristol City.
- DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
- LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
- DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- LNorwich 4-1 BurnleyChampionship
- DBradford 0-0 BurnleyLeague Cup
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- S. RevanHamstring Injury
- G. ThomasonThigh Injury
- N. BroadheadNot in squad
- L. CacaceCalf Injury
- B. SheafNot in squad
- E. AgyeiInjury
- J. BanelInjury
- A. BarnesInjury
- J. BeyerHamstring Injury
- J. CullenKnee Injury
- L. FosterNot in squad
- B. HumphreysNot in squad
- Lucas PiresNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Wrexham at 25% to win and Burnley at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 47% | @ 3.25 | +53.7% |
| Draw | 28% | @ 3.55 | -1.9% |
| Wrexham Win | 25% | @ 2.06 | -48.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.72 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or Draw | 74% | @ 1.72 | +26.9% |
| Wrexham or Draw | 52% | @ 1.32 | -32.0% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 47% | @ 2.10 | -0.9% |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | @ 4.25 | -1.1% |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | @ 1.42 | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | @ 1.19 | -8.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | @ 1.67 | -11.8% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | @ 2.70 | -17.4% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 45% | @ 2.23 | +0.2% |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | @ 1.58 | -13.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Wrexham or Burnley is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley -1 | 37% | @ 6.60 | +142.2% |
| Burnley -1.25 | 31% | @ 7.00 | +115.5% |
| Burnley -0.75 | 43% | @ 4.40 | +87.4% |
| Burnley -0.25 | 55% | @ 3.04 | +66.9% |
| Burnley 0 | 61% | @ 2.55 | +55.9% |
| Burnley +0.25 | 67% | @ 2.08 | +40.3% |
| Burnley +0.5 | 74% | @ 1.77 | +30.7% |
| Burnley +0.75 | 78% | @ 1.60 | +24.9% |
| Burnley +1 | 82% | @ 1.41 | +15.5% |
| Burnley +1.25 | 86% | @ 1.33 | +14.4% |
| Burnley +1.5 | 90% | @ 1.27 | +14.1% |
| Burnley +1.75 | 92% | @ 1.18 | +8.3% |
| Burnley +2 | 94% | @ 1.10 | +2.9% |
| Wrexham +1.25 | 69% | 1.10 | -23.9% |
| Wrexham +1 | 63% | 1.11 | -29.7% |
| Wrexham +0.75 | 57% | 1.20 | -31.1% |
| Wrexham +0.5 | 52% | 1.31 | -32.3% |
| Wrexham +0.25 | 45% | 1.39 | -37.2% |
| Wrexham 0 | 39% | 1.51 | -41.3% |
| Wrexham -0.25 | 33% | 1.77 | -42.4% |
| Wrexham -0.5 | 26% | 2.02 | -46.9% |
| Wrexham -1 | 18% | 2.92 | -47.1% |
| Wrexham -0.75 | 22% | 2.37 | -47.6% |
| Wrexham -1.25 | 14% | 3.35 | -53.1% |
| Wrexham -2 | 6% | 7.00 | -54.9% |
| Wrexham -1.75 | 8% | 4.65 | -61.9% |
| Wrexham -1.5 | 10% | 3.63 | -63.9% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Wrexham vs Burnley?
Our main pick is Burnley Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.33, with 86% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Burnley 0 at 2.55 (+55.9% value).
Who is the favourite for Wrexham vs Burnley?
Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline for Wrexham vs Burnley.
What is the predicted score for Wrexham vs Burnley?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.27 for Wrexham and 1.52 for Burnley. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Wrexham and Burnley play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 08 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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