⚽ Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs FC Porto Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Casa Pia vs FC Porto in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Casa Pia face FC Porto in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Casa Pia have 0 wins from their last 5, while FC Porto have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, FC Porto won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FC Porto win the most likely result at 73%, projecting a 0.6-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Casa Pia vs FC Porto with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.34

73%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.64 – 1.98 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	14.4%	14.3%	9.4%	4.7%
1	4.7%	9.2%	9.1%	6.0%	3.0%
2	1.5%	3.0%	2.9%	1.9%	1.0%
3	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%
4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Casa Pia winDrawFC Porto win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs FC Porto is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, the selection our model is most confident in at 73%. On the match result, the model rates a FC Porto win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 73%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points no (60%).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.92, 51% model probability, -1.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Casa Pia 9%Draw 18%FC Porto 73%

18%73%

73%

FC Porto Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS no

-1.4%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Casa Pia and FC Porto. Wins shown from Casa Pia’s perspective: Casa Pia 1 · FC Porto 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-02	Casa Pia	2 – 1	FC Porto	W
2025-08-24	FC Porto	4 – 0	Casa Pia	L
2025-04-12	Casa Pia	0 – 1	FC Porto	L
2024-12-02	FC Porto	2 – 0	Casa Pia	L
2024-04-21	Casa Pia	1 – 2	FC Porto	L

📈 Recent form

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 0 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 0 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Moreirense.

DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LGIL Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 0-7 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LMaritimo 1-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

FC Porto

FC Porto come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Academico Viseu. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Manchester City.

LFC Porto 0-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
WFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WAcademico Viseu 0-3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
WFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WRio Ave 0-2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Casa Pia at 9% to win and FC Porto at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes a FC Porto win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Casa Pia Win	9%	@ 12.50	+11.0%
Draw	18%	@ 5.40	-1.2%
FC Porto Win	73%	@ 1.26	-8.2%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FC Porto or Draw at 1.03 (90% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
FC Porto or Draw	90%	@ 1.03	-7.0%
Casa Pia or Draw	26%	@ 3.45	-9.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.6-2.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	26%	@ 3.75	-1.2%
Under 2.5	51%	@ 1.92	-1.4%
Under 3.5	73%	@ 1.34	-2.0%
Over 1.5	74%	@ 1.22	-10.2%
Over 2.5	49%	@ 1.76	-14.4%
Over 3.5	27%	@ 2.95	-20.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	40%	@ 2.38	-5.9%
BTTS No	60%	@ 1.49	-9.9%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, with 73% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

Our model makes a FC Porto win the most likely result at 73%. It projects an expected 0.6-2.0 scoreline for Casa Pia vs FC Porto.

What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.64 for Casa Pia and 1.98 for FC Porto. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Casa Pia and FC Porto play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.