⚽ Serie B

Empoli vs Arezzo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Empoli vs Arezzo in the Serie B. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Empoli face Arezzo in the Serie B, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Empoli vs Arezzo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 2.5 @ 1.63

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.14 – 0.54 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	18.6%	10.1%	2.7%	0.5%	0.1%
1	21.2%	11.5%	3.1%	0.6%	0.1%
2	12.1%	6.5%	1.8%	0.3%	0.0%
3	4.6%	2.5%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Empoli winDrawArezzo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Empoli vs Arezzo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.63, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. Goals lean under 2.5 (76%), both teams to score points no (72%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

76%

Under 2.5 goals

72%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Empoli

Empoli come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Carrarese. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Mantova.

WCarrarese 0-1 EmpoliSerie B
LMantova 3-1 EmpoliSerie B
WEmpoli 1-0 CremoneseSerie B
DPisa 1-1 EmpoliCoppa Italia
DLivorno 1-1 EmpoliFriendlies Clubs

Arezzo

Arezzo come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Union Brescia. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Hellas Verona.

LHellas Verona 5-0 ArezzoSerie B
LArezzo 2-3 PalermoSerie B
WAvellino 1-2 ArezzoSerie B
LCagliari 1-0 ArezzoCoppa Italia
WArezzo 2-0 Union BresciaCoppa Italia

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Empoli or Draw at 1.20 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Empoli or Draw	78%	@ 1.20	n/a
Arezzo or Draw	46%	@ 1.78	n/a

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-0.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 76% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	50%	@ 1.35	n/a
Under 1.5	50%	@ 2.90	n/a
Over 2.5	24%	@ 2.12	n/a
Under 2.5	76%	@ 1.63	n/a
Over 3.5	9%	@ 3.90	n/a
Under 3.5	91%	@ 1.21	n/a

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 72%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	28%	@ 1.90	n/a
BTTS No	72%	@ 1.75	n/a

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	50%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.71 for the home side, 0.98 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (21%), 0-0 (19%), 2-0 (12%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Empoli vs Arezzo?

Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.63, with 76% model confidence.

What is the predicted score for Empoli vs Arezzo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.14 for Empoli and 0.54 for Arezzo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Empoli and Arezzo play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.