Padova

Sat 12 Sep1-0Finished

Ascoli

⚽ Serie B

Padova vs Ascoli Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Padova vs Ascoli in the Serie B. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Padova 1-0 Ascoli

Padova vs Ascoli finished 1-0. Padova won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Padova or Draw at 1.33, landed.

Padova face Ascoli in the Serie B, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Padova have 3 wins from their last 5, while Ascoli have 2 wins from their last 3. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Padova vs Ascoli with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.25

92%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.14 – 0.48 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	19.8%	9.5%	2.3%	0.4%	0.0%
1	22.6%	10.8%	2.6%	0.4%	0.0%
2	12.9%	6.2%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%
3	4.9%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
4	1.4%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Padova winDrawAscoli win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Padova vs Ascoli comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 92% model probability. Goals lean under 2.5 (78%), both teams to score points no (74%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

78%

Under 2.5 goals

74%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Padova

Padova come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Ascoli. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Palermo.

LPalermo 2-1 PadovaSerie B
WPadova 1-0 AscoliSerie B
LCremonese 3-1 PadovaSerie B
DPadova 1-1 Hellas VeronaSerie B
WPisa 0-1 PadovaSerie B

Ascoli

Ascoli come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Avellino. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Padova.

WAscoli 3-1 AvellinoSerie B
LPadova 1-0 AscoliSerie B
WAscoli 1-0 BeneventoSerie B
DAscoli 1-1 CarrareseSerie B
WHellas Verona 1-2 AscoliSerie B

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Padova or Draw at 1.36 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Padova or Draw	80%	71%	@ 1.36
Ascoli or Draw	44%	57%	@ 1.70

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-0.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 78% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	92%	75%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	78%	54%	@ 1.75
Under 1.5	52%	29%	@ 3.25
Over 1.5	48%	71%	@ 1.33
Over 2.5	22%	46%	@ 2.05
Over 3.5	8%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 74%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	74%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS Yes	26%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Padova 43%Draw 29%Ascoli 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Padova vs Ascoli?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 92% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

What is the predicted score for Padova vs Ascoli?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.14 for Padova and 0.48 for Ascoli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Padova and Ascoli play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.