⚽ Championship

Swansea vs Burnley Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Swansea vs Burnley in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Swansea face Burnley in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Swansea have 3 wins from their last 5, while Burnley have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Burnley won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.2-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Swansea vs Burnley with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Burnley or Draw @ 1.70

75%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.20 – 1.27 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.5%	10.7%	6.8%	2.9%	0.9%
1	10.2%	12.9%	8.2%	3.5%	1.1%
2	6.1%	7.7%	4.9%	2.1%	0.7%
3	2.4%	3.1%	2.0%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Swansea winDrawBurnley win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Swansea vs Burnley is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.70, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (51%).

Best value

Burnley or Draw at odds 1.70, 75% model probability, +27.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Swansea 25%Draw 26%Burnley 50%

25%26%50%

50%

Burnley Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS no

+27.6%

Best value: Burnley or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Swansea and Burnley. Wins shown from Swansea’s perspective: Burnley 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-03-15	Swansea	0 – 2	Burnley	L
2024-11-10	Burnley	1 – 0	Swansea	L

📈 Recent form

Swansea

Swansea come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Derby. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Southampton.

LSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
WSwansea 2-0 WatfordChampionship
WDerby 0-3 SwanseaChampionship
DSwansea 0-0 Sheffield UtdChampionship

Burnley

Burnley come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bristol City.

DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
LNorwich 4-1 BurnleyChampionship
DBradford 0-0 BurnleyLeague Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Swansea

C. BurgessAchilles Tendon Injury
G. FrancoAnkle Injury
R. StewartInjury

Burnley

E. AgyeiInjury
J. BanelInjury
A. BarnesInjury
J. BeyerHamstring Injury
J. CullenKnee Injury
B. HumphreysNot in squad
D. SatpaevHamstring Injury
H. MejbriNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Swansea at 25% to win and Burnley at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Burnley Win	50%	@ 3.25	+61.5%
Draw	26%	@ 3.50	-10.0%
Swansea Win	25%	@ 2.10	-48.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.70 (75% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Burnley or Draw	75%	@ 1.70	+27.6%
Swansea or Draw	50%	@ 1.32	-34.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	29%	@ 3.85	+13.0%
Under 2.5	55%	@ 1.97	+8.7%
Under 3.5	76%	@ 1.35	+3.1%
Over 1.5	71%	@ 1.23	-13.1%
Over 2.5	45%	@ 1.78	-20.2%
Over 3.5	24%	@ 3.00	-29.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	51%	@ 2.12	+8.6%
BTTS Yes	49%	@ 1.64	-20.0%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Swansea vs Burnley?

Our main pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.70, with 75% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Swansea vs Burnley?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.3 scoreline for Swansea vs Burnley.

What is the predicted score for Swansea vs Burnley?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Swansea and 1.27 for Burnley. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Swansea and Burnley play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.