⚽ Championship
Swansea vs Burnley Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Swansea vs Burnley in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Swansea 3-1 Burnley
Swansea vs Burnley finished 3-1. Swansea won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Burnley or Draw at 1.70, did not land.
Swansea face Burnley in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Swansea have 3 wins from their last 5, while Burnley have no wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Swansea won 1, Burnley won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.2-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Swansea vs Burnley with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Swansea vs Burnley comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Burnley with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 91% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Swansea and Burnley. Wins shown from Swansea’s perspective: Swansea 1 · Burnley 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Swansea | 3 – 1 | Burnley | W |
| 2025-03-15 | Swansea | 0 – 2 | Burnley | L |
| 2024-11-10 | Burnley | 1 – 0 | Swansea | L |
📈 Recent form
Swansea come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Burnley. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Southampton.
- WLincoln 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
- WSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
- LSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
- DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
- WSwansea 2-0 WatfordChampionship
Burnley come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Swansea.
- DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
- DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
- LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
- DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. BurgessAchilles Tendon Injury
- R. StewartInjury
- E. AgyeiInjury
- J. BanelInjury
- A. BarnesInjury
- J. BeyerHamstring Injury
- J. Bruun LarsenInjury
- J. CullenKnee Injury
- B. HumphreysNot in squad
- H. MejbriNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Swansea at 25% to win and Burnley at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 50% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Swansea Win | 25% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.70 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or Draw | 75% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| Swansea or Draw | 50% | 71% | @ 1.32 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 76% | 69% | @ 1.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 76% | @ 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 47% | @ 1.97 |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 53% | @ 1.78 |
| Under 1.5 | 29% | 24% | @ 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 51% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
| BTTS Yes | 49% | 56% | @ 1.64 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Swansea or Burnley is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley +1.75 | 92% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Burnley +1.5 | 91% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Burnley +1.25 | 87% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Burnley +1 | 83% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Burnley +0.75 | 79% | 61% | @ 1.56 |
| Burnley +0.5 | 75% | 52% | @ 1.86 |
| Swansea +1.5 | 74% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Burnley +0.25 | 69% | 46% | @ 2.09 |
| Swansea +1.25 | 68% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Burnley 0 | 62% | 37% | @ 2.54 |
| Swansea +1 | 62% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Swansea +0.75 | 56% | – | 1.23 |
| Burnley -0.5 | 50% | 27% | @ 3.47 |
| Swansea +0.5 | 50% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Swansea +0.25 | 44% | – | 1.40 |
| Burnley -1 | 38% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Swansea 0 | 38% | 63% | 1.52 |
| Burnley -1.25 | 32% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Swansea -0.25 | 31% | 54% | 1.79 |
| Burnley -1.5 | 26% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Swansea -0.5 | 25% | 48% | 2.02 |
| Swansea -0.75 | 21% | 39% | 2.45 |
| Swansea -1 | 17% | 30% | 3.19 |
| Swansea -1.25 | 13% | 27% | 3.54 |
| Swansea -1.5 | 9% | 24% | 3.98 |
| Swansea -1.75 | 8% | 17% | 5.50 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Swansea vs Burnley?
Our model's main pick is Burnley with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 91% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Swansea vs Burnley?
Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.3 scoreline for Swansea vs Burnley.
What is the predicted score for Swansea vs Burnley?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Swansea and 1.27 for Burnley. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Swansea and Burnley play?
Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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CremoneseAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.