Avellino

Sun 13 Sep1-1Finished

Palermo

⚽ Serie B

Avellino vs Palermo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Avellino vs Palermo in the Serie B. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Avellino 1-1 Palermo

Avellino vs Palermo finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Avellino or Draw at 1.57, landed.

Avellino face Palermo in the Serie B, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Avellino have 2 wins from their last 3, while Palermo have 3 wins from their last 3. In their last 2 meetings, Palermo won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Avellino win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.3-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Avellino vs Palermo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.30 – 1.08 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	10.0%	5.4%	1.9%	0.5%
1	12.0%	13.0%	7.0%	2.5%	0.7%
2	7.8%	8.4%	4.6%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.4%	3.7%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.1%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Avellino winDrawPalermo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Avellino vs Palermo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Avellino win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Avellino 42%Draw 24%Palermo 34%

42%24%34%

42%

Avellino Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Avellino and Palermo. Wins shown from Avellino’s perspective: 1 drawn · Palermo 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-13	Avellino	1 – 1	Palermo	D
2026-04-05	Palermo	2 – 0	Avellino	L

📈 Recent form

Avellino

Avellino come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Vicenza Virtus. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Ascoli.

LAscoli 3-1 AvellinoSerie B
DAvellino 1-1 PalermoSerie B
WModena 0-1 AvellinoSerie B
WAvellino 3-0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
LAvellino 1-2 ArezzoSerie B

Palermo

Palermo come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Mantova. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WPalermo 2-1 PadovaSerie B
DAvellino 1-1 PalermoSerie B
WPalermo 3-1 SampdoriaSerie B
WPalermo 5-2 MantovaCoppa Italia
WArezzo 2-3 PalermoSerie B

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Avellino at 42% to win and Palermo at 34%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes an Avellino win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Avellino Win	42%	24%	@ 3.90
Palermo Win	34%	47%	@ 2.00
Draw	24%	29%	@ 3.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Avellino or Draw at 1.73 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Avellino or Draw	67%	53%	@ 1.73
Palermo or Draw	59%	76%	@ 1.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	73%	@ 1.28
Over 1.5	69%	71%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	58%	54%	@ 1.75
Over 2.5	42%	46%	@ 2.05
Under 1.5	31%	29%	@ 3.25
Over 3.5	22%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	58%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS Yes	42%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Avellino 24%Draw 30%Palermo 47%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Avellino vs Palermo?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Avellino vs Palermo?

Our model makes an Avellino win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline for Avellino vs Palermo.

What is the predicted score for Avellino vs Palermo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.30 for Avellino and 1.08 for Palermo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Avellino and Palermo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.