⚽ Super League 1

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

PAOK face Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: PAOK have 2 wins from their last 5, while Aris Thessalonikis have 4 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PAOK win the most likely result at 62%, projecting a 2.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.73

66%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.36 – 1.02 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	3.5%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%
1	8.0%	8.2%	4.2%	1.4%	0.4%
2	9.5%	9.7%	4.9%	1.7%	0.4%
3	7.5%	7.6%	3.9%	1.3%	0.3%
4	4.4%	4.5%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-1

PAOK winDrawAris Thessalonikis win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.73, the selection our model is most confident in at 66%. On the match result, the model rates a PAOK win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 62%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.73, 66% model probability, +13.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

PAOK 62%Draw 21%Aris Thessalonikis 17%

62%21%17%

62%

PAOK Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

+13.5%

Best value: Over 2.5

📈 Recent form

PAOK

PAOK come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Levadiakos. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Panathinaikos.

LPanathinaikos 3-1 PAOKSuper League 1
DPAOK 0-0 OFICup
WAtromitos 1-2 PAOKSuper League 1
LBrann 3-2 PAOKUEFA Europa Conference
WPAOK 4-0 LevadiakosSuper League 1

Aris Thessalonikis

Aris Thessalonikis come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 14. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Anagennisi Karditsas. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at AEK Athens FC.

LAEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
WAris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFISuper League 1
WKalamata 2-3 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
WAnagennisi Karditsas 0-2 Aris ThessalonikisCup
LNapoli 6-2 Aris ThessalonikisFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices PAOK at 62% to win and Aris Thessalonikis at 17%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a PAOK win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Aris Thessalonikis Win	17%	@ 5.75	-2.6%
PAOK Win	62%	@ 1.50	-6.5%
Draw	21%	@ 4.33	-10.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Aris Thessalonikis or Draw at 2.50 (38% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Aris Thessalonikis or Draw	38%	@ 2.50	-4.5%
PAOK or Draw	83%	@ 1.12	-6.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	44%	@ 2.75	+20.2%
Over 2.5	66%	@ 1.73	+13.5%
Over 1.5	85%	@ 1.22	+3.8%
Under 3.5	56%	@ 1.40	-21.2%
Under 2.5	34%	@ 2.08	-28.5%
Under 1.5	15%	@ 4.00	-40.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	56%	@ 1.91	+6.7%
BTTS No	44%	@ 1.91	-15.7%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.73, with 66% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?

Our model makes a PAOK win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 2.4-1.0 scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis.

What is the predicted score for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.36 for PAOK and 1.02 for Aris Thessalonikis. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.